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Time Trends in the Incidence of Spinal Pain in China, 1990 to 2019 and Its Prediction to 2030: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
BACKGROUND: With increasing life expectancy in China, the associated burden of low back and neck pain (spinal pain) on the healthcare system increases, posing a substantial public health challenge. This study aimed to investigate trends in spinal pain incidence across China from 1990 to 2019 and to...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Springer Healthcare
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9633916/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35969366 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40122-022-00422-9 |
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author | Wei, Jiehua Chen, Lizhang Huang, Shengbin Li, Ying Zheng, Jingmao Cheng, Zhilin Xie, Zhaolin |
author_facet | Wei, Jiehua Chen, Lizhang Huang, Shengbin Li, Ying Zheng, Jingmao Cheng, Zhilin Xie, Zhaolin |
author_sort | Wei, Jiehua |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: With increasing life expectancy in China, the associated burden of low back and neck pain (spinal pain) on the healthcare system increases, posing a substantial public health challenge. This study aimed to investigate trends in spinal pain incidence across China from 1990 to 2019 and to predict incidence trends between 2020 and 2030. METHODS: Data were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. The annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) between 1990 and 2019 were calculated using Joinpoint regression analysis. The effects of age, period, and cohort on spinal pain were estimated by an age–period–cohort model. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to forecast incidence trends from 2020 to 2030. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of low back pain (LBP) significantly decreased in both male and female subjects, while the ASIR of neck pain (NP) slightly increased regardless of sex. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the incidence rates of LBP decreased in all age groups, and incidence rates of NP increased after 45 years old among men and women. The age effects showed that the relative risks (RR) of LBP incidence increased with age, and the group aged 40–49 years had the highest RR for NP incidence, regardless of sex. Period effects showed that the risk of NP continuously increased with increasing time periods, but not in LBP. The cohort effect showed a continuously decreasing trend in later birth cohorts. The prediction results of the ARIMA model show that the ASIR of NP in both male and female subjects in China shows an increasing trend in the next 10 years, and the ASIR of LBP increased in male but decreased in female subjects. CONCLUSION: Spinal pain has remained a major public health burden over the past 30 years in China and will likely increase further with population aging. Therefore, spinal pain should be a priority for future research on prevention and therapy, and is especially critical as the aging population increases in China. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40122-022-00422-9. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9633916 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Springer Healthcare |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-96339162022-12-07 Time Trends in the Incidence of Spinal Pain in China, 1990 to 2019 and Its Prediction to 2030: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 Wei, Jiehua Chen, Lizhang Huang, Shengbin Li, Ying Zheng, Jingmao Cheng, Zhilin Xie, Zhaolin Pain Ther Original Research BACKGROUND: With increasing life expectancy in China, the associated burden of low back and neck pain (spinal pain) on the healthcare system increases, posing a substantial public health challenge. This study aimed to investigate trends in spinal pain incidence across China from 1990 to 2019 and to predict incidence trends between 2020 and 2030. METHODS: Data were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. The annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) between 1990 and 2019 were calculated using Joinpoint regression analysis. The effects of age, period, and cohort on spinal pain were estimated by an age–period–cohort model. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to forecast incidence trends from 2020 to 2030. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of low back pain (LBP) significantly decreased in both male and female subjects, while the ASIR of neck pain (NP) slightly increased regardless of sex. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the incidence rates of LBP decreased in all age groups, and incidence rates of NP increased after 45 years old among men and women. The age effects showed that the relative risks (RR) of LBP incidence increased with age, and the group aged 40–49 years had the highest RR for NP incidence, regardless of sex. Period effects showed that the risk of NP continuously increased with increasing time periods, but not in LBP. The cohort effect showed a continuously decreasing trend in later birth cohorts. The prediction results of the ARIMA model show that the ASIR of NP in both male and female subjects in China shows an increasing trend in the next 10 years, and the ASIR of LBP increased in male but decreased in female subjects. CONCLUSION: Spinal pain has remained a major public health burden over the past 30 years in China and will likely increase further with population aging. Therefore, spinal pain should be a priority for future research on prevention and therapy, and is especially critical as the aging population increases in China. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40122-022-00422-9. Springer Healthcare 2022-08-12 2022-12 /pmc/articles/PMC9633916/ /pubmed/35969366 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40122-022-00422-9 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Original Research Wei, Jiehua Chen, Lizhang Huang, Shengbin Li, Ying Zheng, Jingmao Cheng, Zhilin Xie, Zhaolin Time Trends in the Incidence of Spinal Pain in China, 1990 to 2019 and Its Prediction to 2030: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 |
title | Time Trends in the Incidence of Spinal Pain in China, 1990 to 2019 and Its Prediction to 2030: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 |
title_full | Time Trends in the Incidence of Spinal Pain in China, 1990 to 2019 and Its Prediction to 2030: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 |
title_fullStr | Time Trends in the Incidence of Spinal Pain in China, 1990 to 2019 and Its Prediction to 2030: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 |
title_full_unstemmed | Time Trends in the Incidence of Spinal Pain in China, 1990 to 2019 and Its Prediction to 2030: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 |
title_short | Time Trends in the Incidence of Spinal Pain in China, 1990 to 2019 and Its Prediction to 2030: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 |
title_sort | time trends in the incidence of spinal pain in china, 1990 to 2019 and its prediction to 2030: the global burden of disease study 2019 |
topic | Original Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9633916/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35969366 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40122-022-00422-9 |
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