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Maternal Transfer and Long-Term Population Effects of PCBs in Baltic Grey Seals Using a New Toxicokinetic–Toxicodynamic Population Model
Empirical evidence has shown that historical exposure of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) to Baltic grey seals not only severely affected individual fitness, but also population growth rates and most likely caused the retarded recovery rate of the depleted population for decades. We constructed a ne...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Springer US
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9637078/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36242644 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00244-022-00962-3 |
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author | Mauritsson, Karl Desforges, Jean-Pierre Harding, Karin C. |
author_facet | Mauritsson, Karl Desforges, Jean-Pierre Harding, Karin C. |
author_sort | Mauritsson, Karl |
collection | PubMed |
description | Empirical evidence has shown that historical exposure of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) to Baltic grey seals not only severely affected individual fitness, but also population growth rates and most likely caused the retarded recovery rate of the depleted population for decades. We constructed a new model which we term a toxicokinetic–toxicodynamic (TKTD) population model to quantify these effects. The toxicokinetic sub-model describes in detail the bioaccumulation, elimination and vertical transfer from mother to offspring of PCBs and is linked to a toxicodynamic model for estimation of PCB-related damage, hazard and stress impacts on fertility and survival rates. Both sub-models were linked to a Leslie matrix population model to calculate changes in population growth rate and age structure, given different rates of PCB exposure. Toxicodynamic model parameters related to reproductive organ lesions were calibrated using published historical data on observed pregnancy rates in Baltic grey seal females. Compared to empirical data, the TKTD population model described well the age-specific bioaccumulation pattern of PCBs in Baltic grey seals, and thus, the toxicokinetic parameters, deduced from the literature, are believed to be reliable. The model also captured well the general effects of PCBs on historical population growth rates. The model showed that reduced fertility due to increased PCB exposure causes decreased vertical transfer from mother to offspring and in turn increased biomagnification in non-breeding females. The developed TKTD model can be used to perform population viability analyses of Baltic grey seals with multiple stressors, also including by-catches and different hunting regimes. The model can also be extended to other marine mammals and other contaminants by adjustments of model parameters and thus provides a test bed in silico for new substances. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00244-022-00962-3. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9637078 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Springer US |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-96370782022-11-07 Maternal Transfer and Long-Term Population Effects of PCBs in Baltic Grey Seals Using a New Toxicokinetic–Toxicodynamic Population Model Mauritsson, Karl Desforges, Jean-Pierre Harding, Karin C. Arch Environ Contam Toxicol Article Empirical evidence has shown that historical exposure of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) to Baltic grey seals not only severely affected individual fitness, but also population growth rates and most likely caused the retarded recovery rate of the depleted population for decades. We constructed a new model which we term a toxicokinetic–toxicodynamic (TKTD) population model to quantify these effects. The toxicokinetic sub-model describes in detail the bioaccumulation, elimination and vertical transfer from mother to offspring of PCBs and is linked to a toxicodynamic model for estimation of PCB-related damage, hazard and stress impacts on fertility and survival rates. Both sub-models were linked to a Leslie matrix population model to calculate changes in population growth rate and age structure, given different rates of PCB exposure. Toxicodynamic model parameters related to reproductive organ lesions were calibrated using published historical data on observed pregnancy rates in Baltic grey seal females. Compared to empirical data, the TKTD population model described well the age-specific bioaccumulation pattern of PCBs in Baltic grey seals, and thus, the toxicokinetic parameters, deduced from the literature, are believed to be reliable. The model also captured well the general effects of PCBs on historical population growth rates. The model showed that reduced fertility due to increased PCB exposure causes decreased vertical transfer from mother to offspring and in turn increased biomagnification in non-breeding females. The developed TKTD model can be used to perform population viability analyses of Baltic grey seals with multiple stressors, also including by-catches and different hunting regimes. The model can also be extended to other marine mammals and other contaminants by adjustments of model parameters and thus provides a test bed in silico for new substances. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00244-022-00962-3. Springer US 2022-10-15 2022 /pmc/articles/PMC9637078/ /pubmed/36242644 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00244-022-00962-3 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Mauritsson, Karl Desforges, Jean-Pierre Harding, Karin C. Maternal Transfer and Long-Term Population Effects of PCBs in Baltic Grey Seals Using a New Toxicokinetic–Toxicodynamic Population Model |
title | Maternal Transfer and Long-Term Population Effects of PCBs in Baltic Grey Seals Using a New Toxicokinetic–Toxicodynamic Population Model |
title_full | Maternal Transfer and Long-Term Population Effects of PCBs in Baltic Grey Seals Using a New Toxicokinetic–Toxicodynamic Population Model |
title_fullStr | Maternal Transfer and Long-Term Population Effects of PCBs in Baltic Grey Seals Using a New Toxicokinetic–Toxicodynamic Population Model |
title_full_unstemmed | Maternal Transfer and Long-Term Population Effects of PCBs in Baltic Grey Seals Using a New Toxicokinetic–Toxicodynamic Population Model |
title_short | Maternal Transfer and Long-Term Population Effects of PCBs in Baltic Grey Seals Using a New Toxicokinetic–Toxicodynamic Population Model |
title_sort | maternal transfer and long-term population effects of pcbs in baltic grey seals using a new toxicokinetic–toxicodynamic population model |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9637078/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36242644 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00244-022-00962-3 |
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