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Distributed lag inspired machine learning for predicting vaccine-induced changes in COVID-19 hospitalization and intensive care unit admission

Distributed lags play important roles in explaining the short-run dynamic and long-run cumulative effects of features on a response variable. Unlike the usual lag length selection, important lags with significant weights are selected in a distributed lag model (DLM). Inspired by the importance of di...

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Autores principales: Khan, Atikur R., Hasan, Khandaker Tabin, Abedin, Sumaiya, Khan, Saleheen
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9637108/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36335113
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-21969-9
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author Khan, Atikur R.
Hasan, Khandaker Tabin
Abedin, Sumaiya
Khan, Saleheen
author_facet Khan, Atikur R.
Hasan, Khandaker Tabin
Abedin, Sumaiya
Khan, Saleheen
author_sort Khan, Atikur R.
collection PubMed
description Distributed lags play important roles in explaining the short-run dynamic and long-run cumulative effects of features on a response variable. Unlike the usual lag length selection, important lags with significant weights are selected in a distributed lag model (DLM). Inspired by the importance of distributed lags, this research focuses on the construction of distributed lag inspired machine learning (DLIML) for predicting vaccine-induced changes in COVID-19 hospitalization and intensive care unit (ICU) admission rates. Importance of a lagged feature in DLM is examined by hypothesis testing and a subset of important features are selected by evaluating an information criterion. Akin to the DLM, we demonstrate the selection of distributed lags in machine learning by evaluating importance scores and objective functions. Finally, we apply the DLIML with supervised learning for forecasting daily changes in COVID-19 hospitalization and ICU admission rates in United Kingdom (UK) and United States of America (USA). A sharp decline in hospitalization and ICU admission rates are observed when around 40% people are vaccinated. For one percent more vaccination, daily changes in hospitalization and ICU admission rates are expected to reduce by 4.05 and 0.74 per million after 14 days in UK, and 5.98 and 1.04 per million after 20 days in USA, respectively. Long-run cumulative effects in the DLM demonstrate that the daily changes in hospitalization and ICU admission rates are expected to jitter around the zero line in a long-run. Application of the DLIML selects fewer lagged features but provides qualitatively better forecasting outcome for data-driven healthcare service planning.
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spelling pubmed-96371082022-11-07 Distributed lag inspired machine learning for predicting vaccine-induced changes in COVID-19 hospitalization and intensive care unit admission Khan, Atikur R. Hasan, Khandaker Tabin Abedin, Sumaiya Khan, Saleheen Sci Rep Article Distributed lags play important roles in explaining the short-run dynamic and long-run cumulative effects of features on a response variable. Unlike the usual lag length selection, important lags with significant weights are selected in a distributed lag model (DLM). Inspired by the importance of distributed lags, this research focuses on the construction of distributed lag inspired machine learning (DLIML) for predicting vaccine-induced changes in COVID-19 hospitalization and intensive care unit (ICU) admission rates. Importance of a lagged feature in DLM is examined by hypothesis testing and a subset of important features are selected by evaluating an information criterion. Akin to the DLM, we demonstrate the selection of distributed lags in machine learning by evaluating importance scores and objective functions. Finally, we apply the DLIML with supervised learning for forecasting daily changes in COVID-19 hospitalization and ICU admission rates in United Kingdom (UK) and United States of America (USA). A sharp decline in hospitalization and ICU admission rates are observed when around 40% people are vaccinated. For one percent more vaccination, daily changes in hospitalization and ICU admission rates are expected to reduce by 4.05 and 0.74 per million after 14 days in UK, and 5.98 and 1.04 per million after 20 days in USA, respectively. Long-run cumulative effects in the DLM demonstrate that the daily changes in hospitalization and ICU admission rates are expected to jitter around the zero line in a long-run. Application of the DLIML selects fewer lagged features but provides qualitatively better forecasting outcome for data-driven healthcare service planning. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-11-05 /pmc/articles/PMC9637108/ /pubmed/36335113 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-21969-9 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Khan, Atikur R.
Hasan, Khandaker Tabin
Abedin, Sumaiya
Khan, Saleheen
Distributed lag inspired machine learning for predicting vaccine-induced changes in COVID-19 hospitalization and intensive care unit admission
title Distributed lag inspired machine learning for predicting vaccine-induced changes in COVID-19 hospitalization and intensive care unit admission
title_full Distributed lag inspired machine learning for predicting vaccine-induced changes in COVID-19 hospitalization and intensive care unit admission
title_fullStr Distributed lag inspired machine learning for predicting vaccine-induced changes in COVID-19 hospitalization and intensive care unit admission
title_full_unstemmed Distributed lag inspired machine learning for predicting vaccine-induced changes in COVID-19 hospitalization and intensive care unit admission
title_short Distributed lag inspired machine learning for predicting vaccine-induced changes in COVID-19 hospitalization and intensive care unit admission
title_sort distributed lag inspired machine learning for predicting vaccine-induced changes in covid-19 hospitalization and intensive care unit admission
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9637108/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36335113
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-21969-9
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