Specific triacylglycerol, diacylglycerol, and lyso-phosphatidylcholine species for the prediction of type 2 diabetes: a ~ 16-year prospective study in Chinese

BACKGROUND: Bioactive lipids play an important role in insulin secretion and sensitivity, contributing to the pathophysiology of type 2 diabetes (T2D). This study aimed to identify novel lipid species associated with incident T2D in a nested case–control study within a long-term prospective Chinese community-based cohort with a median follow-up of ~ 16 years. METHODS: Plasma samples from 196 incident T2D cases and 196 age- and sex-matched non-T2D controls recruited from the Hong Kong Cardiovascular Risk Factor Prevalence Study (CRISPS) were first analyzed using untargeted lipidomics. Potential predictive lipid species selected by the Boruta analysis were then verified by targeted lipidomics. The associations between these lipid species and incident T2D were assessed. Effects of novel lipid species on insulin secretion in mouse islets were investigated. RESULTS: Boruta analysis identified 16 potential lipid species. After adjustment for body mass index (BMI), triacylglycerol/high-density lipoprotein (TG/HDL) ratio and the presence of prediabetes, triacylglycerol (TG) 12:0_18:2_22:6, TG 16:0_11:1_18:2, TG 49:0, TG 51:1 and diacylglycerol (DG) 18:2_22:6 were independently associated with increased T2D risk, whereas lyso-phosphatidylcholine (LPC) O-16:0, LPC P-16:0, LPC O-18:0 and LPC 18:1 were independently associated with decreased T2D risk. Addition of the identified lipid species to the clinical prediction model, comprised of BMI, TG/HDL ratio and the presence of prediabetes, achieved a 3.8% improvement in the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) (p = 0.0026). Further functional study revealed that, LPC O-16:0 and LPC O-18:0 significantly potentiated glucose induced insulin secretion (GSIS) in a dose-dependent manner, whereas neither DG 18:2_22:6 nor TG 12:0_18:2_22:6 had any effect on GSIS. CONCLUSIONS: Addition of the lipid species substantially improved the prediction of T2D beyond the model based on clinical risk factors. Decreased levels of LPC O-16:0 and LPC O-18:0 may contribute to the development of T2D via reduced insulin secretion. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-022-01677-4.