Recent Declining Trend of Incidence Rate of Subarachnoid Hemorrhage in Shimane, Japan: The Japan Incidence of Subarachnoid Hemorrhage (JIS) Study

The “Izumo Study” revealed the incidence rate of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) in Izumo City, Shimane Prefecture, Japan, from 1980 to 1998. However, no study has been published regarding the incidence of SAH in Shimane Prefecture after 1998. Most studies reporting the incidence of SAH in Japan have been conducted before 2000, although a few have been reported after 2000. This study aimed to assess the estimated age-adjusted incidence rate (AAIR) of SAH in Shimane Prefecture after 1998, following the Izumo Study. A retrospective study was conducted to identify the estimated AAIR of SAH in Shimane Prefecture, using the age-adjusted SAH mortality rate for this population from 1999 to 2017 and assuming that the case-fatality rate of SAH decreased by 0.7% annually from 45% in 1999 to 32.4% in 2017. We used linear regression analysis for trend to the estimated AAIR of SAH. Sensitivity analyses were also conducted by various case-fatality rates of SAH using assuming case-fatality rate based on previous reports. The estimated AAIR of SAH in Shimane Prefecture declined from 33.6 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 29.7-37.9) per 100,000 person-years in 1999, by 26.5%, to 24.7 (95% CI: 21.4-28.5) in 2017 (p < 0.01, r = 0.58). Declining trend of incidence rate of SAH in Shimane Prefecture from 1999 to 2017 was confirmed in this study.