Using Outcome Trajectory Evaluation to Assess HarvestPlus’ Contribution to the Development of National Biofortification Breeding Programs

Improving policies—broadly defined—is at the heart of the structural transformation agenda. This paper describes the use of a new evaluation method—outcome trajectory evaluation (OTE), based on both evaluation and policy process theory—to explore the influence of HarvestPlus, a large and complex research for development program focused on improving nutrition, on a specific policy outcome, namely the establishment of biofortification crop breeding programs in national agricultural research institutes in Bangladesh, India, and Rwanda. The findings support claims of significant HarvestPlus contributions while also raising issues that need to be monitored to ensure sustainability. The paper also discusses the pros and cons of the OTE approach in terms of methodological rigor and the accumulation of learning from one evaluation to the next.