Combining tau-PET and fMRI meta-analyses for patient-centered prediction of cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s disease

BACKGROUND: Tau-PET is a prognostic marker for cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s disease, and the heterogeneity of tau-PET patterns matches cognitive symptom heterogeneity. Thus, tau-PET may allow precision-medicine prediction of individual tau-related cognitive trajectories, which can be important for determining patient-specific cognitive endpoints in clinical trials. Here, we aimed to examine whether tau-PET in cognitive-domain-specific brain regions, identified via fMRI meta-analyses, allows the prediction of domain-specific cognitive decline. Further, we aimed to determine whether tau-PET-informed personalized cognitive composites capture patient-specific cognitive trajectories more sensitively than conventional cognitive measures. METHODS: We included Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) participants classified as controls (i.e., amyloid-negative, cognitively normal, n = 121) or Alzheimer’s disease-spectrum (i.e., amyloid-positive, cognitively normal to dementia, n = 140), plus 111 AVID-1451-A05 participants for independent validation (controls/Alzheimer’s disease-spectrum=46/65). All participants underwent baseline (18)F-flortaucipir tau-PET, amyloid-PET, and longitudinal cognitive testing to assess annual cognitive changes (i.e., episodic memory, language, executive functioning, visuospatial). Cognitive changes were calculated using linear mixed models. Independent meta-analytical task-fMRI activation maps for each included cognitive domain were obtained from the Neurosynth database and applied to tau-PET to determine tau-PET signal in cognitive-domain-specific brain regions. In bootstrapped linear regression, we assessed the strength of the relationship (i.e., partial R(2)) between cognitive-domain-specific tau-PET vs. global or temporal-lobe tau-PET and cognitive changes. Further, we used tau-PET-based prediction of domain-specific decline to compose personalized cognitive composites that were tailored to capture patient-specific cognitive decline. RESULTS: In both amyloid-positive cohorts (ADNI [age = 75.99±7.69] and A05 [age = 74.03±9.03]), cognitive-domain-specific tau-PET outperformed global and temporal-lobe tau-PET for predicting future cognitive decline in episodic memory, language, executive functioning, and visuospatial abilities. Further, a tau-PET-informed personalized cognitive composite across cognitive domains enhanced the sensitivity to assess cognitive decline in amyloid-positive subjects, yielding lower sample sizes required for detecting simulated intervention effects compared to conventional cognitive endpoints (i.e., memory composite, global cognitive composite). However, the latter effect was less strong in A05 compared to the ADNI cohort. CONCLUSION: Combining tau-PET with task-fMRI-derived maps of major cognitive domains facilitates the prediction of domain-specific cognitive decline. This approach may help to increase the sensitivity to detect Alzheimer’s disease-related cognitive decline and to determine personalized cognitive endpoints in clinical trials. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13195-022-01105-5.