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Modeling past and future spatiotemporal distributions of airborne allergenic pollen across the contiguous United States

Exposures to airborne allergenic pollen have been increasing under the influence of changing climate. A modeling system incorporating pollen emissions and atmospheric transport and fate processes has been developed and applied to simulate spatiotemporal distributions of two major aeroallergens, oak...

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Autores principales: Ren, Xiang, Cai, Ting, Mi, Zhongyuan, Bielory, Leonard, Nolte, Christopher G., Georgopoulos, Panos G.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9640548/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36389037
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/falgy.2022.959594
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author Ren, Xiang
Cai, Ting
Mi, Zhongyuan
Bielory, Leonard
Nolte, Christopher G.
Georgopoulos, Panos G.
author_facet Ren, Xiang
Cai, Ting
Mi, Zhongyuan
Bielory, Leonard
Nolte, Christopher G.
Georgopoulos, Panos G.
author_sort Ren, Xiang
collection PubMed
description Exposures to airborne allergenic pollen have been increasing under the influence of changing climate. A modeling system incorporating pollen emissions and atmospheric transport and fate processes has been developed and applied to simulate spatiotemporal distributions of two major aeroallergens, oak and ragweed pollens, across the contiguous United States (CONUS) for both historical (year 2004) and future (year 2047) conditions. The transport and fate of pollen presented here is simulated using our adapted version of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Model performance was evaluated using observed pollen counts at monitor stations across the CONUS for 2004. Our analysis shows that there is encouraging consistency between observed seasonal mean concentrations and corresponding simulated seasonal mean concentrations (oak: Pearson = 0.35, ragweed: Pearson = 0.40), and that the model was able to capture the statistical patterns of observed pollen concentration distributions in 2004 for most of the pollen monitoring stations. Simulation of pollen levels for a future year (2047) considered conditions corresponding to the RCP8.5 scenario. Modeling results show substantial regional variability both in the magnitude and directionality of changes in pollen metrics. Ragweed pollen season is estimated to start earlier and last longer for all nine climate regions of the CONUS, with increasing average pollen concentrations in most regions. The timing and magnitude of oak pollen season vary across the nine climate regions, with the largest increases in pollen concentrations expected in the Northeast region.
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spelling pubmed-96405482022-11-15 Modeling past and future spatiotemporal distributions of airborne allergenic pollen across the contiguous United States Ren, Xiang Cai, Ting Mi, Zhongyuan Bielory, Leonard Nolte, Christopher G. Georgopoulos, Panos G. Front Allergy Allergy Exposures to airborne allergenic pollen have been increasing under the influence of changing climate. A modeling system incorporating pollen emissions and atmospheric transport and fate processes has been developed and applied to simulate spatiotemporal distributions of two major aeroallergens, oak and ragweed pollens, across the contiguous United States (CONUS) for both historical (year 2004) and future (year 2047) conditions. The transport and fate of pollen presented here is simulated using our adapted version of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Model performance was evaluated using observed pollen counts at monitor stations across the CONUS for 2004. Our analysis shows that there is encouraging consistency between observed seasonal mean concentrations and corresponding simulated seasonal mean concentrations (oak: Pearson = 0.35, ragweed: Pearson = 0.40), and that the model was able to capture the statistical patterns of observed pollen concentration distributions in 2004 for most of the pollen monitoring stations. Simulation of pollen levels for a future year (2047) considered conditions corresponding to the RCP8.5 scenario. Modeling results show substantial regional variability both in the magnitude and directionality of changes in pollen metrics. Ragweed pollen season is estimated to start earlier and last longer for all nine climate regions of the CONUS, with increasing average pollen concentrations in most regions. The timing and magnitude of oak pollen season vary across the nine climate regions, with the largest increases in pollen concentrations expected in the Northeast region. Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-10-25 /pmc/articles/PMC9640548/ /pubmed/36389037 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/falgy.2022.959594 Text en © 2022 Ren, Cai, Mi, Bielory, Nolte and Georgopoulos. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Allergy
Ren, Xiang
Cai, Ting
Mi, Zhongyuan
Bielory, Leonard
Nolte, Christopher G.
Georgopoulos, Panos G.
Modeling past and future spatiotemporal distributions of airborne allergenic pollen across the contiguous United States
title Modeling past and future spatiotemporal distributions of airborne allergenic pollen across the contiguous United States
title_full Modeling past and future spatiotemporal distributions of airborne allergenic pollen across the contiguous United States
title_fullStr Modeling past and future spatiotemporal distributions of airborne allergenic pollen across the contiguous United States
title_full_unstemmed Modeling past and future spatiotemporal distributions of airborne allergenic pollen across the contiguous United States
title_short Modeling past and future spatiotemporal distributions of airborne allergenic pollen across the contiguous United States
title_sort modeling past and future spatiotemporal distributions of airborne allergenic pollen across the contiguous united states
topic Allergy
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9640548/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36389037
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/falgy.2022.959594
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