The number of examinations required for the accurate prediction of the progression of the central 10-degree visual field test in glaucoma

The purpose of the study was to investigate the number of examinations required to precisely predict the future central 10-degree visual field (VF) test and to evaluate the effect of fitting non-linear models, including quadratic regression, exponential regression, logistic regression, and M-estimator robust regression model, for eyes with glaucoma. 180 eyes from 133 open angle glaucoma patients with a minimum of 13 Humphrey Field Analyzer 10-2 SITA standard VF tests were analyzed in this study. Using trend analysis with ordinary least squares linear regression (OLSLR), the first, second, and third future VFs were predicted in a point-wise (PW) manner using a varied number of prior VF sequences, and mean absolute errors (MAE) were calculated. The number of VFs needed to reach the minimum 95% confidence interval (CI) of the MAE of the OLSLR was investigated. We also examined the effect of applying other non-linear models. When predicting the first, second, and third future VFs using OLSLR, the minimum MAE was obtained using VF1–12 (2.15 ± 0.98 dB), VF1–11 (2.33 ± 1.10 dB), and VF1–10 (2.63 ± 1.36 dB), respectively. To reach the 95% CI of these MAEs, 10, 10, and 8 VFs were needed for the first, second and third future VF predictions, respectively. No improvement was observed by applying non-linear regression models. As a conclusion, approximately 8–10 VFs were needed to achieve an accurate prediction of PW VF sensitivity of the 10-degree central VF.