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A simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of radiation pneumonitis in patients with thoracic segment esophageal squamous cell carcinoma
BACKGROUND: Radiation pneumonitis (RP) is one of the most severe complications of radiotherapy (RT) or concurrent chemoradiotherapy for thoracic segment esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (TSESCC) with delayed diagnose by conventional computed tomography (CT). The study aimed to develop a nomogram t...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
AME Publishing Company
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9641117/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36388040 http://dx.doi.org/10.21037/tcr-22-582 |
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author | Qiu, Ting Deng, Yuxia Guo, Haochun Zhang, Haijun |
author_facet | Qiu, Ting Deng, Yuxia Guo, Haochun Zhang, Haijun |
author_sort | Qiu, Ting |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Radiation pneumonitis (RP) is one of the most severe complications of radiotherapy (RT) or concurrent chemoradiotherapy for thoracic segment esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (TSESCC) with delayed diagnose by conventional computed tomography (CT). The study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the risk of RP early. METHODS: Data was collected from 174 patients with clinicopathologically confirmed TSESCC from October 2013 to June 2020. Procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), and interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels in serum were dynamically monitored during radiotherapy. Lasso analysis was used for feature screening before multivariate logistic regression analysis to reduce the multicollinearity of variables. A nomogram combined with biological factors and clinical signs for individualized risk assessment and precise prediction of RP was developed and assed the performance with respect to its calibration, discrimination. RESULTS: Of the 174 patients, 30 patients developed RP (grade ≥2) while 144 patients did not. After variable screening by Lasso analysis and logistics multivariate regression analysis, the predictor variables that were finally retained in the nomogram prediction model included IL-6, CRP, and radiotherapy techniques. The model displayed good discrimination with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.898 (95% CI: 0.849–0.947), with the sensitivity and specificity of 0.967 and of 0.736, respectively. This model also shows good calibration and clinical practical value. In addition, the study provided a web-based version of the dynamic nomogram to facilitate clinical application. CONCLUSIONS: The study provides a nomogram model containing IL-6, CRP, RT techniques, which could be conveniently used for individualized prediction of RP in patients with TSESCC during radiotherapy or concurrent chemoradiotherapy. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9641117 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | AME Publishing Company |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-96411172022-11-15 A simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of radiation pneumonitis in patients with thoracic segment esophageal squamous cell carcinoma Qiu, Ting Deng, Yuxia Guo, Haochun Zhang, Haijun Transl Cancer Res Original Article BACKGROUND: Radiation pneumonitis (RP) is one of the most severe complications of radiotherapy (RT) or concurrent chemoradiotherapy for thoracic segment esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (TSESCC) with delayed diagnose by conventional computed tomography (CT). The study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the risk of RP early. METHODS: Data was collected from 174 patients with clinicopathologically confirmed TSESCC from October 2013 to June 2020. Procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), and interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels in serum were dynamically monitored during radiotherapy. Lasso analysis was used for feature screening before multivariate logistic regression analysis to reduce the multicollinearity of variables. A nomogram combined with biological factors and clinical signs for individualized risk assessment and precise prediction of RP was developed and assed the performance with respect to its calibration, discrimination. RESULTS: Of the 174 patients, 30 patients developed RP (grade ≥2) while 144 patients did not. After variable screening by Lasso analysis and logistics multivariate regression analysis, the predictor variables that were finally retained in the nomogram prediction model included IL-6, CRP, and radiotherapy techniques. The model displayed good discrimination with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.898 (95% CI: 0.849–0.947), with the sensitivity and specificity of 0.967 and of 0.736, respectively. This model also shows good calibration and clinical practical value. In addition, the study provided a web-based version of the dynamic nomogram to facilitate clinical application. CONCLUSIONS: The study provides a nomogram model containing IL-6, CRP, RT techniques, which could be conveniently used for individualized prediction of RP in patients with TSESCC during radiotherapy or concurrent chemoradiotherapy. AME Publishing Company 2022-10 /pmc/articles/PMC9641117/ /pubmed/36388040 http://dx.doi.org/10.21037/tcr-22-582 Text en 2022 Translational Cancer Research. All rights reserved. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/Open Access Statement: This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), which permits the non-commercial replication and distribution of the article with the strict proviso that no changes or edits are made and the original work is properly cited (including links to both the formal publication through the relevant DOI and the license). See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Original Article Qiu, Ting Deng, Yuxia Guo, Haochun Zhang, Haijun A simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of radiation pneumonitis in patients with thoracic segment esophageal squamous cell carcinoma |
title | A simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of radiation pneumonitis in patients with thoracic segment esophageal squamous cell carcinoma |
title_full | A simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of radiation pneumonitis in patients with thoracic segment esophageal squamous cell carcinoma |
title_fullStr | A simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of radiation pneumonitis in patients with thoracic segment esophageal squamous cell carcinoma |
title_full_unstemmed | A simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of radiation pneumonitis in patients with thoracic segment esophageal squamous cell carcinoma |
title_short | A simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of radiation pneumonitis in patients with thoracic segment esophageal squamous cell carcinoma |
title_sort | simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of radiation pneumonitis in patients with thoracic segment esophageal squamous cell carcinoma |
topic | Original Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9641117/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36388040 http://dx.doi.org/10.21037/tcr-22-582 |
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