Cargando…
Unsupervised machine learning predicts future sexual behaviour and sexually transmitted infections among HIV-positive men who have sex with men
Machine learning is increasingly introduced into medical fields, yet there is limited evidence for its benefit over more commonly used statistical methods in epidemiological studies. We introduce an unsupervised machine learning framework for longitudinal features and evaluate it using sexual behavi...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2022
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9642906/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36302041 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010559 |
_version_ | 1784826412225527808 |
---|---|
author | Andresen, Sara Balakrishna, Suraj Mugglin, Catrina Schmidt, Axel J. Braun, Dominique L. Marzel, Alex Doco Lecompte, Thanh Darling, Katharine EA Roth, Jan A. Schmid, Patrick Bernasconi, Enos Günthard, Huldrych F. Rauch, Andri Kouyos, Roger D. Salazar-Vizcaya, Luisa |
author_facet | Andresen, Sara Balakrishna, Suraj Mugglin, Catrina Schmidt, Axel J. Braun, Dominique L. Marzel, Alex Doco Lecompte, Thanh Darling, Katharine EA Roth, Jan A. Schmid, Patrick Bernasconi, Enos Günthard, Huldrych F. Rauch, Andri Kouyos, Roger D. Salazar-Vizcaya, Luisa |
author_sort | Andresen, Sara |
collection | PubMed |
description | Machine learning is increasingly introduced into medical fields, yet there is limited evidence for its benefit over more commonly used statistical methods in epidemiological studies. We introduce an unsupervised machine learning framework for longitudinal features and evaluate it using sexual behaviour data from the last 20 years from over 3’700 participants in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). We use hierarchical clustering to find subgroups of men who have sex with men in the SHCS with similar sexual behaviour up to May 2017, and apply regression to test whether these clusters enhance predictions of sexual behaviour or sexually transmitted diseases (STIs) after May 2017 beyond what can be predicted with conventional parameters. We find that behavioural clusters enhance model performance according to likelihood ratio test, Akaike information criterion and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for all outcomes studied, and according to Bayesian information criterion for five out of ten outcomes, with particularly good performance for predicting future sexual behaviour and recurrent STIs. We thus assess a methodology that can be used as an alternative means for creating exposure categories from longitudinal data in epidemiological models, and can contribute to the understanding of time-varying risk factors. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9642906 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-96429062022-11-15 Unsupervised machine learning predicts future sexual behaviour and sexually transmitted infections among HIV-positive men who have sex with men Andresen, Sara Balakrishna, Suraj Mugglin, Catrina Schmidt, Axel J. Braun, Dominique L. Marzel, Alex Doco Lecompte, Thanh Darling, Katharine EA Roth, Jan A. Schmid, Patrick Bernasconi, Enos Günthard, Huldrych F. Rauch, Andri Kouyos, Roger D. Salazar-Vizcaya, Luisa PLoS Comput Biol Research Article Machine learning is increasingly introduced into medical fields, yet there is limited evidence for its benefit over more commonly used statistical methods in epidemiological studies. We introduce an unsupervised machine learning framework for longitudinal features and evaluate it using sexual behaviour data from the last 20 years from over 3’700 participants in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). We use hierarchical clustering to find subgroups of men who have sex with men in the SHCS with similar sexual behaviour up to May 2017, and apply regression to test whether these clusters enhance predictions of sexual behaviour or sexually transmitted diseases (STIs) after May 2017 beyond what can be predicted with conventional parameters. We find that behavioural clusters enhance model performance according to likelihood ratio test, Akaike information criterion and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for all outcomes studied, and according to Bayesian information criterion for five out of ten outcomes, with particularly good performance for predicting future sexual behaviour and recurrent STIs. We thus assess a methodology that can be used as an alternative means for creating exposure categories from longitudinal data in epidemiological models, and can contribute to the understanding of time-varying risk factors. Public Library of Science 2022-10-27 /pmc/articles/PMC9642906/ /pubmed/36302041 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010559 Text en © 2022 Andresen et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Andresen, Sara Balakrishna, Suraj Mugglin, Catrina Schmidt, Axel J. Braun, Dominique L. Marzel, Alex Doco Lecompte, Thanh Darling, Katharine EA Roth, Jan A. Schmid, Patrick Bernasconi, Enos Günthard, Huldrych F. Rauch, Andri Kouyos, Roger D. Salazar-Vizcaya, Luisa Unsupervised machine learning predicts future sexual behaviour and sexually transmitted infections among HIV-positive men who have sex with men |
title | Unsupervised machine learning predicts future sexual behaviour and sexually transmitted infections among HIV-positive men who have sex with men |
title_full | Unsupervised machine learning predicts future sexual behaviour and sexually transmitted infections among HIV-positive men who have sex with men |
title_fullStr | Unsupervised machine learning predicts future sexual behaviour and sexually transmitted infections among HIV-positive men who have sex with men |
title_full_unstemmed | Unsupervised machine learning predicts future sexual behaviour and sexually transmitted infections among HIV-positive men who have sex with men |
title_short | Unsupervised machine learning predicts future sexual behaviour and sexually transmitted infections among HIV-positive men who have sex with men |
title_sort | unsupervised machine learning predicts future sexual behaviour and sexually transmitted infections among hiv-positive men who have sex with men |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9642906/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36302041 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010559 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT andresensara unsupervisedmachinelearningpredictsfuturesexualbehaviourandsexuallytransmittedinfectionsamonghivpositivemenwhohavesexwithmen AT balakrishnasuraj unsupervisedmachinelearningpredictsfuturesexualbehaviourandsexuallytransmittedinfectionsamonghivpositivemenwhohavesexwithmen AT mugglincatrina unsupervisedmachinelearningpredictsfuturesexualbehaviourandsexuallytransmittedinfectionsamonghivpositivemenwhohavesexwithmen AT schmidtaxelj unsupervisedmachinelearningpredictsfuturesexualbehaviourandsexuallytransmittedinfectionsamonghivpositivemenwhohavesexwithmen AT braundominiquel unsupervisedmachinelearningpredictsfuturesexualbehaviourandsexuallytransmittedinfectionsamonghivpositivemenwhohavesexwithmen AT marzelalex unsupervisedmachinelearningpredictsfuturesexualbehaviourandsexuallytransmittedinfectionsamonghivpositivemenwhohavesexwithmen AT docolecomptethanh unsupervisedmachinelearningpredictsfuturesexualbehaviourandsexuallytransmittedinfectionsamonghivpositivemenwhohavesexwithmen AT darlingkatharineea unsupervisedmachinelearningpredictsfuturesexualbehaviourandsexuallytransmittedinfectionsamonghivpositivemenwhohavesexwithmen AT rothjana unsupervisedmachinelearningpredictsfuturesexualbehaviourandsexuallytransmittedinfectionsamonghivpositivemenwhohavesexwithmen AT schmidpatrick unsupervisedmachinelearningpredictsfuturesexualbehaviourandsexuallytransmittedinfectionsamonghivpositivemenwhohavesexwithmen AT bernasconienos unsupervisedmachinelearningpredictsfuturesexualbehaviourandsexuallytransmittedinfectionsamonghivpositivemenwhohavesexwithmen AT gunthardhuldrychf unsupervisedmachinelearningpredictsfuturesexualbehaviourandsexuallytransmittedinfectionsamonghivpositivemenwhohavesexwithmen AT rauchandri unsupervisedmachinelearningpredictsfuturesexualbehaviourandsexuallytransmittedinfectionsamonghivpositivemenwhohavesexwithmen AT kouyosrogerd unsupervisedmachinelearningpredictsfuturesexualbehaviourandsexuallytransmittedinfectionsamonghivpositivemenwhohavesexwithmen AT salazarvizcayaluisa unsupervisedmachinelearningpredictsfuturesexualbehaviourandsexuallytransmittedinfectionsamonghivpositivemenwhohavesexwithmen AT unsupervisedmachinelearningpredictsfuturesexualbehaviourandsexuallytransmittedinfectionsamonghivpositivemenwhohavesexwithmen |