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Associations of hurricane exposure and forecasting with impaired birth outcomes
Early forecasts give people in a storm’s path time to prepare. Less is known about the cost to society when forecasts are incorrect. In this observational study, we examine over 700,000 births in the path of Hurricane Irene and find exposure was associated with impaired birth outcomes. Additional wa...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9643368/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36347839 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33865-x |
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author | Hochard, Jacob Li, Yuanhao Abashidze, Nino |
author_facet | Hochard, Jacob Li, Yuanhao Abashidze, Nino |
author_sort | Hochard, Jacob |
collection | PubMed |
description | Early forecasts give people in a storm’s path time to prepare. Less is known about the cost to society when forecasts are incorrect. In this observational study, we examine over 700,000 births in the path of Hurricane Irene and find exposure was associated with impaired birth outcomes. Additional warning time was associated with decreased preterm birth rates for women who experienced intense storm exposures documenting a benefit of avoiding a type II forecasting error. A larger share of this at-risk population experienced a type I forecasting error where severe physical storm impacts were anticipated but not experienced. Disaster anticipation disrupted healthcare services by delaying and canceling prenatal care, which may contribute to storm-impacted birth outcomes. Recognizing storm damages depend on human responses to predicted storm paths is critical to supporting the next generation’s developmental potential with judicious forecasts that ensure public warning systems mitigate rather than exacerbate climate damages. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9643368 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-96433682022-11-15 Associations of hurricane exposure and forecasting with impaired birth outcomes Hochard, Jacob Li, Yuanhao Abashidze, Nino Nat Commun Article Early forecasts give people in a storm’s path time to prepare. Less is known about the cost to society when forecasts are incorrect. In this observational study, we examine over 700,000 births in the path of Hurricane Irene and find exposure was associated with impaired birth outcomes. Additional warning time was associated with decreased preterm birth rates for women who experienced intense storm exposures documenting a benefit of avoiding a type II forecasting error. A larger share of this at-risk population experienced a type I forecasting error where severe physical storm impacts were anticipated but not experienced. Disaster anticipation disrupted healthcare services by delaying and canceling prenatal care, which may contribute to storm-impacted birth outcomes. Recognizing storm damages depend on human responses to predicted storm paths is critical to supporting the next generation’s developmental potential with judicious forecasts that ensure public warning systems mitigate rather than exacerbate climate damages. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-11-08 /pmc/articles/PMC9643368/ /pubmed/36347839 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33865-x Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Hochard, Jacob Li, Yuanhao Abashidze, Nino Associations of hurricane exposure and forecasting with impaired birth outcomes |
title | Associations of hurricane exposure and forecasting with impaired birth outcomes |
title_full | Associations of hurricane exposure and forecasting with impaired birth outcomes |
title_fullStr | Associations of hurricane exposure and forecasting with impaired birth outcomes |
title_full_unstemmed | Associations of hurricane exposure and forecasting with impaired birth outcomes |
title_short | Associations of hurricane exposure and forecasting with impaired birth outcomes |
title_sort | associations of hurricane exposure and forecasting with impaired birth outcomes |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9643368/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36347839 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33865-x |
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