Development and verification of a nomogram for predicting the prognosis of resectable gastric cancer with outlet obstruction

BACKGROUND: The prognosis of patients with gastric cancer (GC) with gastric outlet obstruction (GOO) after gastrectomy is highly variable. In this study, we aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the prognosis of these patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data from 218 GC patients with GOO who underwent gastrectomy at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center were retrospectively collected as a training cohort. The data of 59 patients with the same diagnosis who underwent gastrectomy at the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University were collected as an external verification cohort. A nomogram for the overall survival (OS) was developed using the Cox regression model in the training cohort, which was validated in a verification cohort. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis showed that the surgical procedure (P < 0.001), period of chemotherapy (P < 0.001), T stage (P = 0.006), N stage (P = 0.040), systemic immune-inflammatory index (SII) (P < 0.001), and fibrinogen level (P = 0.026) were independent factors affecting OS. The nomogram constructed on the aforementioned factors for predicting the 1- and 3-year OS achieved a Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) of 0.756 and 0.763 for the training and verification cohorts, respectively. Compared with the 8(th) American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Tumour-Node-Metastasis (TNM) staging system, the nomogram had higher C-index values and areas under the curve (AUCs) and slightly higher net clinical benefit. CONCLUSION: Compared to the 8(th) AJCC staging system, the newly developed nomogram showed superior performance in predicting the survival of GC patients with GOO after gastrectomy.