Patterns of change in obesity indices and other cardiometabolic risk factors before the diagnosis of type 2 diabetes: two decades follow-up of the Tehran lipid and glucose study

BACKGROUND: Identifying patterns of variation in obesity indices and other cardiometabolic risk factors before the diagnosis of type 2 diabetes could provide insight into the critical period when drastic changes occurred and facilitate targeted interventions for the prevention of diabetes. Therefore, this study sought to explore patterns of change in obesity indices and other cardiometabolic risk factors before diabetes diagnosis. METHODS: We investigated 6305 participants (43.7% men) aged 20–65 from the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) who were free of diabetes at baseline. First, we jointly estimated developmental multi-trajectories of obesity indices using multivariate latent class growth mixed model, and then patterns of cardiometabolic risk factors within the identified multi-trajectories were assessed using mixed-effects models. RESULTS: Three patterns of change in obesity indices were identified. Most participants belonged to the “progressing” group (83.4%; n = 742), with a slight but steadily rising in obesity indices until diagnosis in both men and women. All multi-trajectory groups showed similar exponential increases in fasting and 2-h plasma glucose concentrations 6 years before diagnosis and linear increases in blood pressure and total and LDL cholesterol throughout follow-up. Patterns of triglyceride and HDL cholesterol accompanied each group’s patterns of change in obesity indices. CONCLUSION: Three patterns of the joint progression of obesity indices before diabetes diagnosis were accompanied by similar blood glucose patterns and other cardiometabolic risk factors. These findings suggest the impact of the increasing trend of obesity indices and other metabolic factors on the incidence of diabetes and emphasize the importance of assessing the metabolic risk factors at each visit. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12967-022-03718-8.