Sulfur dioxide emissions curbing effects and influencing mechanisms of China’s emission trading system

The emissions trading system, a crucial and fundamental system reform in the environmental resources field of China, was established to promote the continuous and effective reduction of total emissions of major pollutants. In this context, based on the panel data of 285 Chinese cities (except Tibet) from 2004 to 2018, this paper uses the quasi-experimental method of Difference in Difference to assess the effect of the emissions trading system introduced on sulfur dioxide emissions of China and the transmission mechanism. The article generates several intriguing findings. (1) The emissions trading system has a significant suppressive effect on sulfur dioxide emissions. (2) Mechanistic tests show that the emissions trading system can effectively suppress sulfur dioxide emissions by reducing government intervention, stimulating green patent innovation, and improving resource use efficiency, in which green utility patents have a masking effect. (3) From the east, central and west divisions, the emissions trading system has a significant suppression effect on sulfur dioxide emission in the eastern and central regions, and the eastern region is better than the central region. (4) In terms of factor endowment, the emissions trading system has a significant suppression effect on sulfur dioxide emissions in both resource-based and non-resource-based cities, with non-resource-based cities outperforming resource-based cities; while within resource-based effect exists only in regenerative cities. (5) The emissions trading system has a significant suppression effect on sulfur dioxide emissions in old and non-old industrial base cities in industrial base zoning. The suppression effect in non-old industrial base cities is better than that in old industrial base cities. This paper provides empirical evidence for evaluating the emissions trading system at the provincial level in China and suggests policy recommendations for selecting government tools to effectively curb sulfur dioxide emissions. Although the emissions trading system has made an outstanding contribution to sulfur dioxide emissions reduction, there is still much space for further development of potential emission reductions.