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Nomograms for predicting the prognosis of patients with penoscrotal extramammary Paget’s disease: A retrospective study in the SEER database and two medical centers

BACKGROUND: Extramammary Paget’ s disease (EMPD) is a rare cutaneous malignant tumor, and the prognostic factors associated with penoscrotal EMPD remains unclear. The purpose of this study is to investigate prognostic factors and construct nomograms to predict the outcome of patients with EMPD locat...

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Autores principales: Song, Le-Bin, Zhou, Xiang, Luan, Jiao-Chen, Wang, Hao-Yang, Cao, Xue-Chen, Lu, Jia-Wei, Zheng, Yu-Jie, Wu, Xin-Feng, Lu, Yan
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9647091/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36387106
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fonc.2022.973579
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author Song, Le-Bin
Zhou, Xiang
Luan, Jiao-Chen
Wang, Hao-Yang
Cao, Xue-Chen
Lu, Jia-Wei
Zheng, Yu-Jie
Wu, Xin-Feng
Lu, Yan
author_facet Song, Le-Bin
Zhou, Xiang
Luan, Jiao-Chen
Wang, Hao-Yang
Cao, Xue-Chen
Lu, Jia-Wei
Zheng, Yu-Jie
Wu, Xin-Feng
Lu, Yan
author_sort Song, Le-Bin
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Extramammary Paget’ s disease (EMPD) is a rare cutaneous malignant tumor, and the prognostic factors associated with penoscrotal EMPD remains unclear. The purpose of this study is to investigate prognostic factors and construct nomograms to predict the outcome of patients with EMPD located in the penis or scrotum. METHODS: From the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, we extracted 95 patients with primary EMPD located in the penis or scrotum as the training cohort. Forty-nine penoscrotal EMPD patients were included from two medical centers as the external validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression model were applied to investigating risk factors of cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). Based on the results of multivariate Cox regression analysis, the nomograms were constructed for predicting CSS and OS of patients with penoscrotal EMPD. The concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves were applied to evaluate the practicability and accuracy of the nomograms. RESULTS: In the training cohort, multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that marital status and tumor stage were independent factors of CSS, and marital status, tumor stage and surgery are associated with OS independently in patients with penoscrotal EMPD. Based on these results, we developed nomograms to predict CSS and OS respectively. The C-index values were 0.778 for CSS, and 0.668 for OS in the training set, which displayed the good discriminations. In the external validation set, the C-index values were 0.945 for CSS, and 0.703 for OS. The areas under the curve (AUC) values of nomogram predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS were 0.815, 0.833, and 0.861 respectively, and 0.839, 0.654, and 0.667 for nomogram predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS respectively. In the validation set, the AUC values of nomogram predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS were 0.944, 0.896, and 0.896 respectively, and 0.777, 0.762 and 0.692 for nomogram predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS respectively. Additionally, the internal calibration curves also proved that our nomograms have good accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: By incorporating marital status, tumor stage and/or surgery, our nomograms can efficiently predict CSS and OS of patients with penoscrotal EMPD.
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spelling pubmed-96470912022-11-15 Nomograms for predicting the prognosis of patients with penoscrotal extramammary Paget’s disease: A retrospective study in the SEER database and two medical centers Song, Le-Bin Zhou, Xiang Luan, Jiao-Chen Wang, Hao-Yang Cao, Xue-Chen Lu, Jia-Wei Zheng, Yu-Jie Wu, Xin-Feng Lu, Yan Front Oncol Oncology BACKGROUND: Extramammary Paget’ s disease (EMPD) is a rare cutaneous malignant tumor, and the prognostic factors associated with penoscrotal EMPD remains unclear. The purpose of this study is to investigate prognostic factors and construct nomograms to predict the outcome of patients with EMPD located in the penis or scrotum. METHODS: From the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, we extracted 95 patients with primary EMPD located in the penis or scrotum as the training cohort. Forty-nine penoscrotal EMPD patients were included from two medical centers as the external validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression model were applied to investigating risk factors of cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). Based on the results of multivariate Cox regression analysis, the nomograms were constructed for predicting CSS and OS of patients with penoscrotal EMPD. The concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves were applied to evaluate the practicability and accuracy of the nomograms. RESULTS: In the training cohort, multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that marital status and tumor stage were independent factors of CSS, and marital status, tumor stage and surgery are associated with OS independently in patients with penoscrotal EMPD. Based on these results, we developed nomograms to predict CSS and OS respectively. The C-index values were 0.778 for CSS, and 0.668 for OS in the training set, which displayed the good discriminations. In the external validation set, the C-index values were 0.945 for CSS, and 0.703 for OS. The areas under the curve (AUC) values of nomogram predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS were 0.815, 0.833, and 0.861 respectively, and 0.839, 0.654, and 0.667 for nomogram predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS respectively. In the validation set, the AUC values of nomogram predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS were 0.944, 0.896, and 0.896 respectively, and 0.777, 0.762 and 0.692 for nomogram predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS respectively. Additionally, the internal calibration curves also proved that our nomograms have good accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: By incorporating marital status, tumor stage and/or surgery, our nomograms can efficiently predict CSS and OS of patients with penoscrotal EMPD. Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-10-27 /pmc/articles/PMC9647091/ /pubmed/36387106 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fonc.2022.973579 Text en Copyright © 2022 Song, Zhou, Luan, Wang, Cao, Lu, Zheng, Wu and Lu https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Oncology
Song, Le-Bin
Zhou, Xiang
Luan, Jiao-Chen
Wang, Hao-Yang
Cao, Xue-Chen
Lu, Jia-Wei
Zheng, Yu-Jie
Wu, Xin-Feng
Lu, Yan
Nomograms for predicting the prognosis of patients with penoscrotal extramammary Paget’s disease: A retrospective study in the SEER database and two medical centers
title Nomograms for predicting the prognosis of patients with penoscrotal extramammary Paget’s disease: A retrospective study in the SEER database and two medical centers
title_full Nomograms for predicting the prognosis of patients with penoscrotal extramammary Paget’s disease: A retrospective study in the SEER database and two medical centers
title_fullStr Nomograms for predicting the prognosis of patients with penoscrotal extramammary Paget’s disease: A retrospective study in the SEER database and two medical centers
title_full_unstemmed Nomograms for predicting the prognosis of patients with penoscrotal extramammary Paget’s disease: A retrospective study in the SEER database and two medical centers
title_short Nomograms for predicting the prognosis of patients with penoscrotal extramammary Paget’s disease: A retrospective study in the SEER database and two medical centers
title_sort nomograms for predicting the prognosis of patients with penoscrotal extramammary paget’s disease: a retrospective study in the seer database and two medical centers
topic Oncology
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9647091/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36387106
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fonc.2022.973579
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