A prospective cohort study of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in three sites of Western Kenya

BACKGROUND: Malaria in western Kenya is currently characterized by sustained high Plasmodial transmission and infection resurgence, despite positive responses in some areas following intensified malaria control interventions since 2006. This study aimed to evaluate long-term changes in malaria transmission profiles and to assess patterns of asymptomatic malaria infections in school children aged 5–15 years at three sites in western Kenya with heterogeneous malaria transmission and simultaneous malaria control interventions. METHODS: The study was conducted from 2018 to 2019 and is based on data taken every third year from 2005 to 2014 during a longitudinal parasitological and mosquito adult surveillance and malaria control programme that was initiated in 2002 in the villages of Kombewa, Iguhu, and Marani. Plasmodium spp. infections were determined using microscopy. Mosquito samples were identified to species and host blood meal source and sporozoite infections were assayed using polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: Plasmodium falciparum was the only malaria parasite evaluated during this study (2018–2019). Asymptomatic malaria parasite prevalence in school children decreased in all sites from 2005 to 2008. However, since 2011, parasite prevalence has resurged by > 40% in Kombewa and Marani. Malaria vector densities showed similar reductions from 2005 to 2008 in all sites, rose steadily until 2014, and decreased again. Overall, Kombewa had a higher risk of infection compared to Iguhu (χ(2) = 552.52, df = 1, P < 0.0001) and Marani (χ(2) = 1127.99, df = 1, P < 0.0001). There was a significant difference in probability of non-infection during malaria episodes (log-rank test, χ(2) = 617.59, df = 2, P < 0.0001) in the study sites, with Kombewa having the least median time of non-infection during malaria episodes. Gender bias toward males in infection was observed (χ(2) = 27.17, df = 1, P < 0.0001). The annual entomological inoculation rates were 5.12, 3.65, and 0.50 infective bites/person/year at Kombewa, Iguhu, and Marani, respectively, during 2018 to 2019. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria prevalence in western Kenya remains high and has resurged in some sites despite continuous intervention efforts. Targeting malaria interventions to those with asymptomatic infections who serve as human reservoirs might decrease malaria transmission and prevent resurgences. Longitudinal monitoring enables detection of changes in parasitological and entomological profiles and provides core baseline data for the evaluation of vector interventions and guidance for future planning of malaria control. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT: [Image: see text] SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-022-05503-4.