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Analysis of Risk Factors and the Establishment of a Predictive Model for Thrombosis in Patients with Antineutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody-Associated Vasculitis
PURPOSE: To explore the risk factors for thrombi occurring in patients with antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)–associated vasculitis (AAV) and establish a risk prediction model to better predict the risk of thrombosis in patients with AAV. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 11...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Dove
2022
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Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9651082/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36389020 http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/IJGM.S384624 |
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author | Zhang, Zhihuan Huang, Wenhan Ren, Feifeng Luo, Lei Zhou, Jun Tian, Mengxue Wang, Zhongjie Chen, Dandan Tang, Lin |
author_facet | Zhang, Zhihuan Huang, Wenhan Ren, Feifeng Luo, Lei Zhou, Jun Tian, Mengxue Wang, Zhongjie Chen, Dandan Tang, Lin |
author_sort | Zhang, Zhihuan |
collection | PubMed |
description | PURPOSE: To explore the risk factors for thrombi occurring in patients with antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)–associated vasculitis (AAV) and establish a risk prediction model to better predict the risk of thrombosis in patients with AAV. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 117 AAV patients who had been hospitalized in The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University between October 2010 and December 2021. For all patients, we recorded demographic characteristics and clinical data, analyzed the risk factors for thrombosis in AAV patients and then developed a risk prediction model. RESULTS: Stepwise logistic regression analysis indicated that a high complement C3 level, a high BVAS score and a high Padua score were independent risk factors for thrombosis in AAV patients. According to multivariate analysis, a predictive model for thrombus risk was successfully established; the area under the ROC curve(AUC) was 0.803 (95% CI: 0.716–0.890) and the maximum Youden index, sensitivity and specificity were 0.487, 59.0% and 89.7%, respectively. CONCLUSION: A high complement C3 level, high BVAS score, and a high Padua score were shown to be independent risk factors for thrombosis in AAV patients. We developed a risk prediction model based on these three risk factors that could predict the risk of thrombosis in AAV patients to some extent. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9651082 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Dove |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-96510822022-11-15 Analysis of Risk Factors and the Establishment of a Predictive Model for Thrombosis in Patients with Antineutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody-Associated Vasculitis Zhang, Zhihuan Huang, Wenhan Ren, Feifeng Luo, Lei Zhou, Jun Tian, Mengxue Wang, Zhongjie Chen, Dandan Tang, Lin Int J Gen Med Original Research PURPOSE: To explore the risk factors for thrombi occurring in patients with antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)–associated vasculitis (AAV) and establish a risk prediction model to better predict the risk of thrombosis in patients with AAV. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 117 AAV patients who had been hospitalized in The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University between October 2010 and December 2021. For all patients, we recorded demographic characteristics and clinical data, analyzed the risk factors for thrombosis in AAV patients and then developed a risk prediction model. RESULTS: Stepwise logistic regression analysis indicated that a high complement C3 level, a high BVAS score and a high Padua score were independent risk factors for thrombosis in AAV patients. According to multivariate analysis, a predictive model for thrombus risk was successfully established; the area under the ROC curve(AUC) was 0.803 (95% CI: 0.716–0.890) and the maximum Youden index, sensitivity and specificity were 0.487, 59.0% and 89.7%, respectively. CONCLUSION: A high complement C3 level, high BVAS score, and a high Padua score were shown to be independent risk factors for thrombosis in AAV patients. We developed a risk prediction model based on these three risk factors that could predict the risk of thrombosis in AAV patients to some extent. Dove 2022-11-07 /pmc/articles/PMC9651082/ /pubmed/36389020 http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/IJGM.S384624 Text en © 2022 Zhang et al. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/This work is published and licensed by Dove Medical Press Limited. The full terms of this license are available at https://www.dovepress.com/terms.php and incorporate the Creative Commons Attribution – Non Commercial (unported, v3.0) License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/) ). By accessing the work you hereby accept the Terms. Non-commercial uses of the work are permitted without any further permission from Dove Medical Press Limited, provided the work is properly attributed. For permission for commercial use of this work, please see paragraphs 4.2 and 5 of our Terms (https://www.dovepress.com/terms.php). |
spellingShingle | Original Research Zhang, Zhihuan Huang, Wenhan Ren, Feifeng Luo, Lei Zhou, Jun Tian, Mengxue Wang, Zhongjie Chen, Dandan Tang, Lin Analysis of Risk Factors and the Establishment of a Predictive Model for Thrombosis in Patients with Antineutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody-Associated Vasculitis |
title | Analysis of Risk Factors and the Establishment of a Predictive Model for Thrombosis in Patients with Antineutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody-Associated Vasculitis |
title_full | Analysis of Risk Factors and the Establishment of a Predictive Model for Thrombosis in Patients with Antineutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody-Associated Vasculitis |
title_fullStr | Analysis of Risk Factors and the Establishment of a Predictive Model for Thrombosis in Patients with Antineutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody-Associated Vasculitis |
title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of Risk Factors and the Establishment of a Predictive Model for Thrombosis in Patients with Antineutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody-Associated Vasculitis |
title_short | Analysis of Risk Factors and the Establishment of a Predictive Model for Thrombosis in Patients with Antineutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody-Associated Vasculitis |
title_sort | analysis of risk factors and the establishment of a predictive model for thrombosis in patients with antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis |
topic | Original Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9651082/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36389020 http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/IJGM.S384624 |
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