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Mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics incorporating booster vaccine program and environmental contamination

COVID-19 is one of the greatest human global health challenges that causes economic meltdown of many nations. In this study, we develop an SIR-type model which captures both human-to-human and environment-to-human-to-environment transmissions that allows the recruitment of corona viruses in the envi...

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Autores principales: Akinwande, N.I., Ashezua, T.T., Gweryina, R.I., Somma, S.A., Oguntolu, F.A., Usman, A., Abdurrahman, O.N., Kaduna, F.S., Adajime, T.P., Kuta, F.A., Abdulrahman, S., Olayiwola, R.O., Enagi, A.I., Bolarin, G.A., Shehu, M.D.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9651474/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36387529
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e11513
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author Akinwande, N.I.
Ashezua, T.T.
Gweryina, R.I.
Somma, S.A.
Oguntolu, F.A.
Usman, A.
Abdurrahman, O.N.
Kaduna, F.S.
Adajime, T.P.
Kuta, F.A.
Abdulrahman, S.
Olayiwola, R.O.
Enagi, A.I.
Bolarin, G.A.
Shehu, M.D.
author_facet Akinwande, N.I.
Ashezua, T.T.
Gweryina, R.I.
Somma, S.A.
Oguntolu, F.A.
Usman, A.
Abdurrahman, O.N.
Kaduna, F.S.
Adajime, T.P.
Kuta, F.A.
Abdulrahman, S.
Olayiwola, R.O.
Enagi, A.I.
Bolarin, G.A.
Shehu, M.D.
author_sort Akinwande, N.I.
collection PubMed
description COVID-19 is one of the greatest human global health challenges that causes economic meltdown of many nations. In this study, we develop an SIR-type model which captures both human-to-human and environment-to-human-to-environment transmissions that allows the recruitment of corona viruses in the environment in the midst of booster vaccine program. Theoretically, we prove some basic properties of the full model as well as investigate the existence of SARS-CoV-2-free and endemic equilibria. The SARS-CoV-2-free equilibrium for the special case, where the constant inflow of corona virus into the environment by any other means, Ω is suspended [Formula: see text] is globally asymptotically stable when the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] and unstable if otherwise. Whereas in the presence of free-living Corona viruses in the environment ([Formula: see text]), the endemic equilibrium using the centre manifold theory is shown to be stable globally whenever [Formula: see text]. The model is extended into optimal control system and analyzed analytically using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. Results from the optimal control simulations show that strategy E for implementing the public health advocacy, booster vaccine program, treatment of isolated people and disinfecting or fumigating of surfaces and dead bodies before burial is the most effective control intervention for mitigating the spread of Corona virus. Importantly, based on the available data used, the study also revealed that if at least 70% of the constituents followed the aforementioned public health policies, then herd immunity could be achieved for COVID-19 pandemic in the community.
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spelling pubmed-96514742022-11-14 Mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics incorporating booster vaccine program and environmental contamination Akinwande, N.I. Ashezua, T.T. Gweryina, R.I. Somma, S.A. Oguntolu, F.A. Usman, A. Abdurrahman, O.N. Kaduna, F.S. Adajime, T.P. Kuta, F.A. Abdulrahman, S. Olayiwola, R.O. Enagi, A.I. Bolarin, G.A. Shehu, M.D. Heliyon Research Article COVID-19 is one of the greatest human global health challenges that causes economic meltdown of many nations. In this study, we develop an SIR-type model which captures both human-to-human and environment-to-human-to-environment transmissions that allows the recruitment of corona viruses in the environment in the midst of booster vaccine program. Theoretically, we prove some basic properties of the full model as well as investigate the existence of SARS-CoV-2-free and endemic equilibria. The SARS-CoV-2-free equilibrium for the special case, where the constant inflow of corona virus into the environment by any other means, Ω is suspended [Formula: see text] is globally asymptotically stable when the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] and unstable if otherwise. Whereas in the presence of free-living Corona viruses in the environment ([Formula: see text]), the endemic equilibrium using the centre manifold theory is shown to be stable globally whenever [Formula: see text]. The model is extended into optimal control system and analyzed analytically using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. Results from the optimal control simulations show that strategy E for implementing the public health advocacy, booster vaccine program, treatment of isolated people and disinfecting or fumigating of surfaces and dead bodies before burial is the most effective control intervention for mitigating the spread of Corona virus. Importantly, based on the available data used, the study also revealed that if at least 70% of the constituents followed the aforementioned public health policies, then herd immunity could be achieved for COVID-19 pandemic in the community. Elsevier 2022-11-09 /pmc/articles/PMC9651474/ /pubmed/36387529 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e11513 Text en © 2022 The Author(s) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Research Article
Akinwande, N.I.
Ashezua, T.T.
Gweryina, R.I.
Somma, S.A.
Oguntolu, F.A.
Usman, A.
Abdurrahman, O.N.
Kaduna, F.S.
Adajime, T.P.
Kuta, F.A.
Abdulrahman, S.
Olayiwola, R.O.
Enagi, A.I.
Bolarin, G.A.
Shehu, M.D.
Mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics incorporating booster vaccine program and environmental contamination
title Mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics incorporating booster vaccine program and environmental contamination
title_full Mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics incorporating booster vaccine program and environmental contamination
title_fullStr Mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics incorporating booster vaccine program and environmental contamination
title_full_unstemmed Mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics incorporating booster vaccine program and environmental contamination
title_short Mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics incorporating booster vaccine program and environmental contamination
title_sort mathematical model of covid-19 transmission dynamics incorporating booster vaccine program and environmental contamination
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9651474/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36387529
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e11513
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