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Modelling the impact of school reopening and contact tracing strategies on Covid-19 dynamics in different epidemiologic settings in Brazil

We simulate the impact of school reopening during the COVID-19 pandemic in three major urban centers in Brazil to identify the epidemiological indicators and the best timing for the return of in-school activities and the effect of contact tracing as a mitigation measure. Our goal is to offer guideli...

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Autores principales: Borges, Marcelo Eduardo, Ferreira, Leonardo Souto, Poloni, Silas, Bagattini, Angela Maria, Franco, Caroline, da Rosa, Michelle Quarti Machado, Simon, Lorena Mendes, Camey, Suzi Alves, Kuchenbecker, Ricardo de Souza, Prado, Paulo Inácio, Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola, Kraenkel, Roberto André, Coutinho, Renato Mendes, Toscano, Cristiana Maria
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9652103/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36404949
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloepi.2022.100094
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author Borges, Marcelo Eduardo
Ferreira, Leonardo Souto
Poloni, Silas
Bagattini, Angela Maria
Franco, Caroline
da Rosa, Michelle Quarti Machado
Simon, Lorena Mendes
Camey, Suzi Alves
Kuchenbecker, Ricardo de Souza
Prado, Paulo Inácio
Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola
Kraenkel, Roberto André
Coutinho, Renato Mendes
Toscano, Cristiana Maria
author_facet Borges, Marcelo Eduardo
Ferreira, Leonardo Souto
Poloni, Silas
Bagattini, Angela Maria
Franco, Caroline
da Rosa, Michelle Quarti Machado
Simon, Lorena Mendes
Camey, Suzi Alves
Kuchenbecker, Ricardo de Souza
Prado, Paulo Inácio
Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola
Kraenkel, Roberto André
Coutinho, Renato Mendes
Toscano, Cristiana Maria
author_sort Borges, Marcelo Eduardo
collection PubMed
description We simulate the impact of school reopening during the COVID-19 pandemic in three major urban centers in Brazil to identify the epidemiological indicators and the best timing for the return of in-school activities and the effect of contact tracing as a mitigation measure. Our goal is to offer guidelines for evidence-based policymaking. We implement an extended SEIR model stratified by age and considering contact networks in different settings – school, home, work, and community, in which the infection transmission rate is affected by various intervention measures. After fitting epidemiological and demographic data, we simulate scenarios with increasing school transmission due to school reopening, and also estimate the number of hospitalization and deaths averted by the implementation of contact tracing. Reopening schools results in a non-linear increase in reported COVID-19 cases and deaths, which is highly dependent on infection and disease incidence at the time of reopening. When contact tracing and quarantining are restricted to school and home settings, a large number of daily tests is required to produce significant effects in reducing the total number of hospitalizations and deaths. Policymakers should carefully consider the epidemiological context and timing regarding the implementation of school closure and return of in-person school activities. While contact tracing strategies prevent new infections within school environments, they alone are not sufficient to avoid significant impacts on community transmission.
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spelling pubmed-96521032022-11-15 Modelling the impact of school reopening and contact tracing strategies on Covid-19 dynamics in different epidemiologic settings in Brazil Borges, Marcelo Eduardo Ferreira, Leonardo Souto Poloni, Silas Bagattini, Angela Maria Franco, Caroline da Rosa, Michelle Quarti Machado Simon, Lorena Mendes Camey, Suzi Alves Kuchenbecker, Ricardo de Souza Prado, Paulo Inácio Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola Kraenkel, Roberto André Coutinho, Renato Mendes Toscano, Cristiana Maria Glob Epidemiol Original Research We simulate the impact of school reopening during the COVID-19 pandemic in three major urban centers in Brazil to identify the epidemiological indicators and the best timing for the return of in-school activities and the effect of contact tracing as a mitigation measure. Our goal is to offer guidelines for evidence-based policymaking. We implement an extended SEIR model stratified by age and considering contact networks in different settings – school, home, work, and community, in which the infection transmission rate is affected by various intervention measures. After fitting epidemiological and demographic data, we simulate scenarios with increasing school transmission due to school reopening, and also estimate the number of hospitalization and deaths averted by the implementation of contact tracing. Reopening schools results in a non-linear increase in reported COVID-19 cases and deaths, which is highly dependent on infection and disease incidence at the time of reopening. When contact tracing and quarantining are restricted to school and home settings, a large number of daily tests is required to produce significant effects in reducing the total number of hospitalizations and deaths. Policymakers should carefully consider the epidemiological context and timing regarding the implementation of school closure and return of in-person school activities. While contact tracing strategies prevent new infections within school environments, they alone are not sufficient to avoid significant impacts on community transmission. Elsevier 2022-11-12 /pmc/articles/PMC9652103/ /pubmed/36404949 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloepi.2022.100094 Text en © 2022 The Authors https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Original Research
Borges, Marcelo Eduardo
Ferreira, Leonardo Souto
Poloni, Silas
Bagattini, Angela Maria
Franco, Caroline
da Rosa, Michelle Quarti Machado
Simon, Lorena Mendes
Camey, Suzi Alves
Kuchenbecker, Ricardo de Souza
Prado, Paulo Inácio
Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola
Kraenkel, Roberto André
Coutinho, Renato Mendes
Toscano, Cristiana Maria
Modelling the impact of school reopening and contact tracing strategies on Covid-19 dynamics in different epidemiologic settings in Brazil
title Modelling the impact of school reopening and contact tracing strategies on Covid-19 dynamics in different epidemiologic settings in Brazil
title_full Modelling the impact of school reopening and contact tracing strategies on Covid-19 dynamics in different epidemiologic settings in Brazil
title_fullStr Modelling the impact of school reopening and contact tracing strategies on Covid-19 dynamics in different epidemiologic settings in Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Modelling the impact of school reopening and contact tracing strategies on Covid-19 dynamics in different epidemiologic settings in Brazil
title_short Modelling the impact of school reopening and contact tracing strategies on Covid-19 dynamics in different epidemiologic settings in Brazil
title_sort modelling the impact of school reopening and contact tracing strategies on covid-19 dynamics in different epidemiologic settings in brazil
topic Original Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9652103/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36404949
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloepi.2022.100094
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