Discovery of pathway-independent protein signatures associated with clinical outcome in human cancer cohorts

Proteomic data provide a direct readout of protein function, thus constituting an information-rich resource for prognostic and predictive modeling. However, protein array data may not fully capture pathway activity due to the limited number of molecules and incomplete pathway coverage compared to other high-throughput technologies. For the present study, our aim was to improve clinical outcome prediction compared to published pathway-dependent prognostic signatures for The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) cohorts using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). RPPA data is particularly well-suited to the LASSO due to the relatively low number of predictors compared to larger genomic data matrices. Our approach selected predictors regardless of their pathway membership and optimally combined their RPPA measurements into a weighted risk score. Performance was assessed and compared to that of the published signatures using two unbiased approaches: 1) 10 iterations of threefold cross-validation for unbiased estimation of hazard ratio and difference in 5-year survival (by Kaplan–Meier method) between predictor-defined high and low risk groups; and 2) a permutation test to evaluate the statistical significance of the cross-validated log-rank statistic. Here, we demonstrate strong stratification of 445 renal clear cell carcinoma tumors from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) into high and low risk groups using LASSO regression on RPPA data. Median cross-validated difference in 5-year overall survival was 32.8%, compared to 25.2% using a published receptor tyrosine kinase (RTK) prognostic signature (median hazard ratios of 3.3 and 2.4, respectively). Applicability and performance of our approach was demonstrated in three additional TCGA cohorts: ovarian serous cystadenocarcinoma (OVCA), sarcoma (SARC), and cutaneous melanoma (SKCM). The data-driven LASSO-based approach is versatile and well-suited for discovery of new protein/disease associations.