Waist Circumference-Years Construct Analysis and the Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes: China Health and Nutrition Survey, 1997–2015

Background: Few studies have combined the degree and duration of abdominal obesity into a waist circumference-years construct for analysis. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of waist circumference-years on the incidence of type 2 diabetes. Methods: A total of 6616 adults from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) were enrolled in this study from 1997. The waist circumference-years construct was represented as the sum of the upper and lower area between the waist circumference baseline (men: ≥90 cm, women: ≥85 cm) and the waist circumference line. The correlations in the study were analyzed using logistic regression. Results: The incidence of type 2 diabetes increased with increasing waist circumference-years, with an adjusted risk increase of 38% (95% CI: 31–47%) for each additional 50 waist circumference-years, and this rate was similar across gender and age groups. The area under the curve of waist circumference-years (0.743) was greatest in the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis compared to baseline waist circumference (0.731) and the waist-height ratio (0.728) (p < 0.05). Conclusion: The waist circumference-years construct is closely associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes and may be a stronger predictor of type 2 diabetes risk than baseline waist circumference or the waist-height ratio.