Carbon Reduction of the Three-Year Air Pollution Control Plan under the LEAP Model Using a GREAT Tool in Panzhihua, China

In the context of global warming and climate change, various international communities have set different reduction targets for carbon emissions. In 2020, China proposed that CO(2) emissions will peak by 2030 and reached a critical period in which carbon reduction is a key strategic direction. Sichuan Academy of Environmental Sciences published the “Panzhihua Three-Year Iron Fist Gas Control Action Plan” in 2021. The measures implemented in the plan only address general considerations of conventional pollutants in the atmosphere. This study established the Panzhihua LEAP model based on the GREAT tool and built four simulation scenarios, including pollutant treatment upgrade (PTU), traffic improvement (TI), boiler remediation (BR), and baseline scenarios for industrial sources, mobile sources, and industrial boilers in policy implementation. It provided a supportive basis for the development of environmental protection measures in Sichuan province to increase the efficiency of carbon emission reduction. The quantitative analysis of the simulation results for the five years from 2020 to 2024 was conducted to discuss the intrinsic links between carbon emissions and energy consumption, market storage, and demand under different scenarios. It concluded that the BR and TI scenarios benefit carbon reduction, while the PTU scenario negatively impacts it. This study provided recommendations for analyzing the carbon footprint at a city-wide level, quantifying the relationship between the implementation of relevant environmental measures and carbon emissions, which are available for policy development that incorporates carbon reduction considerations and offers relevant support for future research.