Risk Prediction Models for Patients with Head and Neck Cancer among the Taiwanese Population

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Epidemiological evidence has suggested that modifiable factors play an essential role in the risk of head and neck cancer (HNC). However, few studies have established HNC prediction models based on sex and tumor subsites. In this study, we establish sex- and subsite-specific HNC risk prediction models for the general Taiwanese population. Our study draws from a large sample size of 14,423 participants. The HNC prediction models may be applied in clinical risk assessments for health promotion programs. ABSTRACT: Epidemiological evidence has suggested that modifiable lifestyle factors play a significant role in the risk of head and neck cancer (HNC). However, few studies have established risk prediction models of HNC based on sex and tumor subsites. Therefore, we predicted HNC risk by creating a risk prediction model based on sex- and tumor subsites for the general Taiwanese population. This study adopted a case-control study design, including 2961 patients with HNC and 11,462 healthy controls. Multivariate logistic regression and nomograms were used to establish HNC risk prediction models, which were internally validated using bootstrap sampling. The multivariate logistic regression model indicated that age, education level, alcohol consumption, cigarette smoking, passive smoking, coffee consumption, and body mass index are common HNC predictors in both sexes, while the father’s ethnicity, betel-nut-chewing habits, and tea consumption were male-specific HNC predictors. The risk factors of the prediction model for the HNC tumor subsite among men were the same as those for all patients with HNC. Additionally, the risks of alcohol consumption, cigarette smoking, and betel nut chewing varied, based on the tumor subsite. A c-index ranging from 0.93 to 0.98 indicated that all prediction models had excellent predictive ability. We developed several HNC risk prediction models that may be useful in health promotion programs.