Exploring the Relationship between Sugar and Sugar Substitutes—Analysis of Income Level and Beverage Consumption Market Pattern Based on the Perspective of Healthy China

This paper estimates the impact of income level on household beverage consumption, analyzes the consumption trends of sugar-sweetened beverages and sugar-free beverages in households, explores the future changes in the beverage consumption market pattern, and predicts the possible impact of the sugar industry on the development of sugar substitutes based on the beverage consumption data of Kantar Consumer Index in China from 2015 to 2017. The research results show that, firstly, there is an “inverted U-shaped” relationship between income level and household consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages, which indicates that as income rises, household consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages tends to increase and then decrease. Secondly, income level has a positive effect on the household consumption of sugar-free beverages. Finally, in the future stage, with the further growth of income and the promotion of a healthy China, a large amount of sugar substitutes will be added to beverages instead of the original sugar, and the relationship between sugar and sugar substitute consumption will change from complementary to substitution. The findings of this paper have implications for encouraging food and beverage suppliers to produce “healthy”, “nutritious” and “innovative” low-sugar products to meet the health needs of residents and ensure the healthy and orderly development of the sugar industry.