First Testing of Literature-Based Models for Predicting Increase in Body Weight and Adipose Tissue Mass After Kidney Transplantation

Introduction: Weight gain is a risk factor for poor clinical outcomes following kidney transplantation. Research Question: This study’s aim was a first testing of 2 models to identify patients early after kidney transplantation who are at risk for weight gain and increase in adipose tissue mass in the first year after kidney transplantation. Design: The literature-based models were evaluated on longitudinal data of 88, respectively 79 kidney transplant recipients via ordinary and Firth regression, using gains ≥ 5% in weight and adipose tissue mass respectively as primary and secondary endpoints. Results: The models included physical activity, smoking cessation at time of kidney transplantation, self-reported health status, depressive symptomatology, gender, age, education, baseline body mass index and baseline trunk fat as predictors. Area under the curve was 0.797 (95%-CI 0.702 to 0.893) for the weight model and 0.767 (95%-CI 0.656 to 0.878) for the adipose tissue mass model—showing good, respectively fair discriminative ability. For weight gain ≥ 5%, main risk factors were smoking cessation at time of transplantation (OR 16.425, 95%-CI 1.737-155.288) and better self-reported baseline health state (OR 1.068 for each 1-unit increase, 95%-CI 1.012-1.128). For the adipose tissue mass gain ≥ 5%, main risk factor was overweight/obesity (BMI ≥ 25) at baseline (odds ratio 7.659, 95%-CI 1.789-32.789). Conclusions: The models have potential to assess patients' risk for weight or adipose tissue mass gain during the year after transplantation, but further testing is needed before implementation in clinical practice.