Nomogram based on MRI can preoperatively predict brain invasion in meningioma

Predicting brain invasion preoperatively should help to guide surgical decision-making and aid the prediction of meningioma grading and prognosis. However, only a few imaging features have been identified to aid prediction. This study aimed to develop and validate an MRI-based nomogram to predict brain invasion by meningioma. In this retrospective study, 658 patients were examined via routine MRI before undergoing surgery and were diagnosed with meningioma by histopathology. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regularization was used to determine the optimal combination of clinical characteristics and MRI features for predicting brain invasion by meningiomas. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were used to determine the discriminatory ability. Furthermore, a nomogram was constructed using the optimal MRI features, and decision curve analysis was used to validate the clinical usefulness of the nomogram. Eighty-one patients with brain invasion and 577 patients without invasion were enrolled. According to LASSO regularization, tumour shape, tumour boundary, peritumoral oedema, and maximum diameter were independent predictors of brain invasion. The model showed good discriminatory ability for predicting brain invasion in meningiomas, with an AUC of 0.905 (95% CI, 0.871–0.940) vs 0.898 (95% CI, 0.849–0.947) and sensitivity of 93.0% vs 92.6% in the training vs validation cohorts. Our predictive model based on MRI features showed good performance and high sensitivity for predicting the risk of brain invasion in meningiomas and can be applied in the clinical setting. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10143-022-01872-7.