The usefulness of the total metabolic tumor volume for predicting the postoperative recurrence of thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND: Induction or adjuvant therapies are not always beneficial for thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients, and it is thus important to identify patients at high risk for postoperative ESCC recurrence. We investigated the usefulness of the total metabolic tumor volume (TMTV) for predicting the postoperative recurrence of thoracic ESCC. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the cases of 163 thoracic ESCC patients (135 men, 28 women; median age of 66 [range 34–82] years) treated at our hospital in 2007–2012. The TMTV was calculated from the fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose ((18)F-FDG) uptake in the primary lesion and lymph node metastases. The optimal cut-off values for relapse and non-relapse were obtained by the time-dependent receiver operating curve analyses. Relapse-free survival (RFS) was evaluated by the Kaplan-Meier method, and between-subgroup differences in survival were analyzed by log-rank test. The prognostic significance of metabolic parameters and clinicopathological variables was assessed by a Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. The difference in the failure patterns after surgical resection was evaluated using the χ(2)-test. RESULTS: The optimal cut-off value of TMTV for discriminating relapse from non-relapse was 3.82. The patients with a TMTV ≥3.82 showed significantly worse prognoses than those with low values (p < 0.001). The TMTV was significantly related to RFS (model 1 for preoperative risk factors: TMTV: hazard ratio [HR] =2.574, p = 0.004; model 2 for preoperative and postoperative risk factors: HR = 1.989, p = 0.044). The combination of the TMTV and cN0–1 or pN0–1 stage significantly stratified the patients into low-and high-risk recurrence groups (TMTV cN0–1, p < 0.001; TMTV pN0–1, p = 0.004). The rates of hematogenous and regional lymph node metastasis were significantly higher in the patients with TMTV ≥3.82 than those with low values (hematogenous metastasis, p < 0.001, regional lymph node metastasis, p = 0.011). CONCLUSIONS: The TMTV was a more significantly independent prognostic factor for RFS than any other PET parameter in patients with resectable thoracic ESCC. The TMTV may be useful for the identifying thoracic ESCC patients at high risk for postoperative recurrence and for deciding the patient management. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-022-10281-4.