Linking the Estimation of Threat and COVID-19 Fear and Safety Behavior Use: Does Intolerance of Uncertainty Matter?

Research has shown threat overestimation is significantly associated with intolerance of uncertainty (IU), and both processes predict higher anxiety and safety behavior usage. However, the extent to which threat overestimation predicts subsequent COVID-19-related distress may vary as a function of IU. The present study examined IU as a moderator of the relationship between COVID-19 threat estimation and subsequent COVID-19 fear and safety behavior use. Between February 27 and March 26, 2020, participants (N = 57) completed a self-report measure of IU and estimated the number of people they believed had died from COVID-19. Four weeks later, participants completed measures of COVID-19 fear and safety behavior use. Results revealed IU significantly predicted subsequent COVID-19 fear and safety behavior use. IU also moderated the effect of threat estimation on COVID-19 fear such that those who underestimated threat and experienced low to moderate levels of IU reported experiencing lower levels of COVID-19 fear 1 month later.