Analysis of optimal lockdown in integral economic–epidemic model

We analyze the optimal lockdown in an economic–epidemic model with realistic infectiveness distribution. The model is described by Volterra integral equations and accurately depicts the COVID-19 infectivity pattern from clinical data. A maximum principle is derived, and a qualitative dynamic analysi...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Hritonenko, Natali, Yatsenko, Yuri
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2022
Materias:
Research Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9667431/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36405251
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00199-022-01469-7
Descripción
Sumario:We analyze the optimal lockdown in an economic–epidemic model with realistic infectiveness distribution. The model is described by Volterra integral equations and accurately depicts the COVID-19 infectivity pattern from clinical data. A maximum principle is derived, and a qualitative dynamic analysis of the optimal lockdown problem is provided over finite and infinite horizons. We analytically prove and economically justify the possibility of an endemic scenario when the infection rate begins to climb after the lockdown ends.

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