Analysis of optimal lockdown in integral economic–epidemic model

We analyze the optimal lockdown in an economic–epidemic model with realistic infectiveness distribution. The model is described by Volterra integral equations and accurately depicts the COVID-19 infectivity pattern from clinical data. A maximum principle is derived, and a qualitative dynamic analysi...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Hritonenko, Natali, Yatsenko, Yuri
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2022
Materias:
Research Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9667431/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36405251
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00199-022-01469-7
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author Hritonenko, Natali
Yatsenko, Yuri
author_facet Hritonenko, Natali
Yatsenko, Yuri
author_sort Hritonenko, Natali
collection PubMed
description We analyze the optimal lockdown in an economic–epidemic model with realistic infectiveness distribution. The model is described by Volterra integral equations and accurately depicts the COVID-19 infectivity pattern from clinical data. A maximum principle is derived, and a qualitative dynamic analysis of the optimal lockdown problem is provided over finite and infinite horizons. We analytically prove and economically justify the possibility of an endemic scenario when the infection rate begins to climb after the lockdown ends.
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spelling pubmed-96674312022-11-16 Analysis of optimal lockdown in integral economic–epidemic model Hritonenko, Natali Yatsenko, Yuri Econ Theory Research Article We analyze the optimal lockdown in an economic–epidemic model with realistic infectiveness distribution. The model is described by Volterra integral equations and accurately depicts the COVID-19 infectivity pattern from clinical data. A maximum principle is derived, and a qualitative dynamic analysis of the optimal lockdown problem is provided over finite and infinite horizons. We analytically prove and economically justify the possibility of an endemic scenario when the infection rate begins to climb after the lockdown ends. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2022-11-16 /pmc/articles/PMC9667431/ /pubmed/36405251 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00199-022-01469-7 Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2022, Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Research Article
Hritonenko, Natali
Yatsenko, Yuri
Analysis of optimal lockdown in integral economic–epidemic model
title Analysis of optimal lockdown in integral economic–epidemic model
title_full Analysis of optimal lockdown in integral economic–epidemic model
title_fullStr Analysis of optimal lockdown in integral economic–epidemic model
title_full_unstemmed Analysis of optimal lockdown in integral economic–epidemic model
title_short Analysis of optimal lockdown in integral economic–epidemic model
title_sort analysis of optimal lockdown in integral economic–epidemic model
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9667431/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36405251
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00199-022-01469-7
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