Association between the triglyceride-glucose index and carotid plaque incidence: a longitudinal study

BACKGROUND: Carotid plaque and triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index are associated with insulin resistance. However, a highly debated question is whether there is an association between the TyG index and carotid plaque incidence. Thus we performed an in-depth longitudinal study to investigate the relationship between carotid plaque occurrence and the TyG index among Chinese individuals. METHODS: Two thousand and three hundred seventy subjects (1381 males and 989 females) were enrolled and followed up for three years. The subjects were stratified into four groups based on the quartile of the TyG index at baseline. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were conducted to examine the role of TyG played in the carotid plaque. The strength of association was expressed as hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: After three years of follow-up, 444 subjects were detected with newly formed carotid plaque. The overall 3-year cumulative carotid plaque incidence was 18.7%, and the risk of carotid plaque increased with elevated TyG index (p < 0.001). The Cox regression analysis showed that males (HR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.10–1.61), and people with higher systolic blood pressure (HR:1.01, 95% CI: 1.01–1.02), lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.50–0.93), diabetes (HR: 2.21, 95% CI: 1.64–2.97), and hypertension (HR:1.49, 95% CI: 1.23–1.81) had a significantly increased risk for the carotid plaque formation. Similar results remained in the sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The TyG index can be used as a dose-responsive indicator of carotid plaque in the Chinese population. Elderly males with dyslipidemia, diabetes, or hypertension should be more vigilant about their TyG index since they are susceptible to developing carotid plaque. Physicians are encouraged to monitor the TyG index to help identify and treat patients with carotid plaque at an early stage. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-022-01683-6.