Prediction of long-term remission in patients following discontinuation of anti-TNF therapy in ulcerative colitis: a 10 year follow up study

BACKGROUND: The long-term outcomes of Ulcerative colitis (UC) after discontinuation of biological therapy are largely unknown. There is also a lack of accurate and validated markers that can predict outcome after withdrawal accurately. The aims of this study were to describe the long-term outcomes in UC patients following cessation of anti-TNF therapy and explore potential biomarkers as an approach towards precision medicine. METHODS: Seventy-five patients with moderate to severe UC treated to remission with anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) were included in the study. This is a follow-up of previously reported UC outcomes. The patients were categorized as either “Remission” or “Relapse”. The “Relapse” group was divided into subgroups determined by the highest treatment level needed to obtain remission the last 3 years of observation: non-biological therapy, biological therapy or colectomy. Remission were divided in long term remission (LTR), those using immunomodulating drugs (LTR + imids) and those using only 5-amino-salicylate (5-ASA) treatment (LTR) for the past 3 years. Analyses of mucosal gene expression by real-time PCR were performed. RESULTS: The median (IQR) observation time of all patients included was 121 (111–137) months. Of the 75 patients, 46 (61%) did not receive biological therapy, including 23 (31%) in LTR ± imids. Of these 23 patients, 16 (21%) were defined as LTR with a median observation time of (IQR) 95 (77–113) months. In total 14 patients (19%) underwent colectomy during the 10 years after first remission. Mucosal TNF copies/µg mRNA < 10 000 at anti-TNF discontinuation predicted long-term remission, biological free remission and lower risk of colectomy with a HR 0.36 (0.14–0.92) for long-term remission, HR 0.17 (0.04–0.78) for biological free remission and HR 0.12 (0.01–0.91) for colectomy. IL1RL1 was normalized in LTR phenotype and higher in relapsing UC. CONCLUSION: In this 10-year follow-up of UC of patients with moderate to severe disease, 61% of patients experience an altered phenotype to a milder disease course without need of biological therapy. Twenty-one percent of the patients were LTR without any medication except of 5-ASA. Mucosal TNF gene expression and IL1RL1- transcripts may be of clinical utility for long term prognosis in development of precision medicine in UC. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-022-02522-4.