Comparison of the effects of triglyceride variability and exposure estimate on clinical prognosis in diabetic patients

BACKGROUND: Hypertriglyceridemia is an important feature of dyslipidemia in type 1 and type 2 diabetic patients and associated with the development of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Recently, variability of lipid profile has been suggested as a residual risk factor for cardiovascular disease. This study compared the clinical impact of serum triglyceride variability, and their cumulative exposure estimates on cardiovascular prognosis in diabetic patients. METHODS: A total of 25,933 diabetic patients who had serum triglyceride levels measured at least 3 times and did not have underlying malignancy, myocardial infarction (MI), and stroke during the initial 3 years (modeling phase) were selected from three tertiary hospitals. They were divided into a high/low group depending on their coefficient of variation (CV) and cumulative exposure estimate (CEE). Incidence of major adverse event (MAE), a composite of all-cause death, MI, and stroke during the following 5 years were compared between groups by multivariable analysis after propensity score matching. RESULTS: Although there was a slight difference, both the high CV group and the high CEE group had a higher cardiovascular risk profile including male-dominance, smoking, alcohol, dyslipidemia, and chronic kidney disease compared to the low groups. After the propensity score matching, the high CV group showed higher MAE incidence compared to the low CV group (9.1% vs 7.7%, p = 0.01). In contrast, there was no significant difference of MAE incidence between the high CEE group and the low CEE group (8.6% vs 9.1%, p = 0.44). After the multivariable analysis with further adjustment for potential residual confounding factors, the high CV was suggested as an independent risk predictor for MAE (HR 1.19 [95% CI 1.03–1.37]). CONCLUSION: Visit-to-visit variability of triglyceride rather than their cumulative exposure is more strongly related to the incidence of MAE in diabetic patients. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-022-01681-8.