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Non-invasive model for predicting esophageal varices based on liver and spleen volume
BACKGROUND: Upper endoscopy is the gold standard for predicting esophageal varices in China. Guidelines and consensus suggest that patients with liver cirrhosis should undergo periodic upper endoscopy, most patients undergo their first upper endoscopy when esophageal variceal bleeds. Therefore, it i...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Baishideng Publishing Group Inc
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9669847/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36405281 http://dx.doi.org/10.12998/wjcc.v10.i32.11743 |
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author | Yang, Long-Bao Zhao, Gang Tantai, Xin-Xing Xiao, Cai-Lan Qin, Si-Wen Dong, Lei Chang, Dan-Yan Jia, Yuan Li, Hong |
author_facet | Yang, Long-Bao Zhao, Gang Tantai, Xin-Xing Xiao, Cai-Lan Qin, Si-Wen Dong, Lei Chang, Dan-Yan Jia, Yuan Li, Hong |
author_sort | Yang, Long-Bao |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Upper endoscopy is the gold standard for predicting esophageal varices in China. Guidelines and consensus suggest that patients with liver cirrhosis should undergo periodic upper endoscopy, most patients undergo their first upper endoscopy when esophageal variceal bleeds. Therefore, it is important to develop a non-invasive model to early diagnose esophageal varices. AIM: To develop a non-invasive predictive model for esophageal varices based on liver and spleen volume in viral cirrhosis patients. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study based on viral cirrhosis crowd in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University. By collecting the basic information and clinical data of the participants, we derived the independent risk factors and established the prediction model of esophageal varices. The established model was compared with other models. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration plot and decision curve analysis were used to test the discriminating ability, calibration ability and clinical practicability in both the internal and external validation. RESULTS: The portal vein diameter, the liver and spleen volume, and volume change rate were the independent risk factors of esophageal varices. We successfully used the factors to establish the predictive model [area under the curve (AUC) 0.87, 95%CI: 0.80-0.95], which showed better predictive value than other models. The model showed good discriminating ability, calibration ability and the clinical practicability in both modelling group and external validation group. CONCLUSION: The developed non-invasive predictive model can be used as an effective tool for predicting esophageal varices in viral cirrhosis patients. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9669847 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Baishideng Publishing Group Inc |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-96698472022-11-18 Non-invasive model for predicting esophageal varices based on liver and spleen volume Yang, Long-Bao Zhao, Gang Tantai, Xin-Xing Xiao, Cai-Lan Qin, Si-Wen Dong, Lei Chang, Dan-Yan Jia, Yuan Li, Hong World J Clin Cases Retrospective Study BACKGROUND: Upper endoscopy is the gold standard for predicting esophageal varices in China. Guidelines and consensus suggest that patients with liver cirrhosis should undergo periodic upper endoscopy, most patients undergo their first upper endoscopy when esophageal variceal bleeds. Therefore, it is important to develop a non-invasive model to early diagnose esophageal varices. AIM: To develop a non-invasive predictive model for esophageal varices based on liver and spleen volume in viral cirrhosis patients. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study based on viral cirrhosis crowd in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University. By collecting the basic information and clinical data of the participants, we derived the independent risk factors and established the prediction model of esophageal varices. The established model was compared with other models. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration plot and decision curve analysis were used to test the discriminating ability, calibration ability and clinical practicability in both the internal and external validation. RESULTS: The portal vein diameter, the liver and spleen volume, and volume change rate were the independent risk factors of esophageal varices. We successfully used the factors to establish the predictive model [area under the curve (AUC) 0.87, 95%CI: 0.80-0.95], which showed better predictive value than other models. The model showed good discriminating ability, calibration ability and the clinical practicability in both modelling group and external validation group. CONCLUSION: The developed non-invasive predictive model can be used as an effective tool for predicting esophageal varices in viral cirrhosis patients. Baishideng Publishing Group Inc 2022-11-16 2022-11-16 /pmc/articles/PMC9669847/ /pubmed/36405281 http://dx.doi.org/10.12998/wjcc.v10.i32.11743 Text en ©The Author(s) 2022. Published by Baishideng Publishing Group Inc. All rights reserved. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This article is an open-access article that was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: https://creativecommons.org/Licenses/by-nc/4.0/ |
spellingShingle | Retrospective Study Yang, Long-Bao Zhao, Gang Tantai, Xin-Xing Xiao, Cai-Lan Qin, Si-Wen Dong, Lei Chang, Dan-Yan Jia, Yuan Li, Hong Non-invasive model for predicting esophageal varices based on liver and spleen volume |
title | Non-invasive model for predicting esophageal varices based on liver and spleen volume |
title_full | Non-invasive model for predicting esophageal varices based on liver and spleen volume |
title_fullStr | Non-invasive model for predicting esophageal varices based on liver and spleen volume |
title_full_unstemmed | Non-invasive model for predicting esophageal varices based on liver and spleen volume |
title_short | Non-invasive model for predicting esophageal varices based on liver and spleen volume |
title_sort | non-invasive model for predicting esophageal varices based on liver and spleen volume |
topic | Retrospective Study |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9669847/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36405281 http://dx.doi.org/10.12998/wjcc.v10.i32.11743 |
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