Cargando…

Global burden of primary liver cancer in 2020 and predictions to 2040

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The burden of liver cancer varies across the world. Herein, we present updated estimates of the current global burden of liver cancer (incidence and mortality) and provide predictions of the number of cases/deaths to 2040. METHODS: We extracted data on primary liver cancer cas...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Rumgay, Harriet, Arnold, Melina, Ferlay, Jacques, Lesi, Olufunmilayo, Cabasag, Citadel J., Vignat, Jérôme, Laversanne, Mathieu, McGlynn, Katherine A., Soerjomataram, Isabelle
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9670241/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36208844
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhep.2022.08.021
_version_ 1784832291316432896
author Rumgay, Harriet
Arnold, Melina
Ferlay, Jacques
Lesi, Olufunmilayo
Cabasag, Citadel J.
Vignat, Jérôme
Laversanne, Mathieu
McGlynn, Katherine A.
Soerjomataram, Isabelle
author_facet Rumgay, Harriet
Arnold, Melina
Ferlay, Jacques
Lesi, Olufunmilayo
Cabasag, Citadel J.
Vignat, Jérôme
Laversanne, Mathieu
McGlynn, Katherine A.
Soerjomataram, Isabelle
author_sort Rumgay, Harriet
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND & AIMS: The burden of liver cancer varies across the world. Herein, we present updated estimates of the current global burden of liver cancer (incidence and mortality) and provide predictions of the number of cases/deaths to 2040. METHODS: We extracted data on primary liver cancer cases and deaths from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database, which includes 185 countries. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years were calculated. Cases and deaths up to the year 2040 were predicted based on incidence and mortality rates for 2020 and global demographic projections to 2040. RESULTS: In 2020, an estimated 905,700 people were diagnosed with, and 830,200 people died from, liver cancer globally. Global ASRs for liver cancer were 9.5 and 8.7 for new cases and deaths, respectively, per 100,000 people and were highest in Eastern Asia (17.8 new cases, 16.1 deaths), Northern Africa (15.2 new cases, 14.5 deaths), and South-Eastern Asia (13.7 new cases, 13.2 deaths). Liver cancer was among the top three causes of cancer death in 46 countries and was among the top five causes of cancer death in 90 countries. ASRs of both incidence and mortality were higher among males than females in all world regions (male:female ASR ratio ranged between 1.2–3.6). The number of new cases of liver cancer per year is predicted to increase by 55.0% between 2020 and 2040, with a possible 1.4 million people diagnosed in 2040. A predicted 1.3 million people could die from liver cancer in 2040 (56.4% more than in 2020). CONCLUSIONS: Liver cancer is a major cause of death in many countries, and the number of people diagnosed with liver cancer is predicted to rise. Efforts to reduce the incidence of preventable liver cancer should be prioritised. LAY SUMMARY: The burden of liver cancer varies across the world. Liver cancer was among the top three causes of cancer death in 46 countries and was among the top five causes of cancer death in 90 countries worldwide. We predict the number of cases and deaths will rise over the next 20 years as the world population grows. Primary liver cancer due to some causes is preventable if control efforts are prioritised and the predicted rise in cases may increase the need for resources to manage care of patients with liver cancer.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-9670241
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher Elsevier
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-96702412022-12-01 Global burden of primary liver cancer in 2020 and predictions to 2040 Rumgay, Harriet Arnold, Melina Ferlay, Jacques Lesi, Olufunmilayo Cabasag, Citadel J. Vignat, Jérôme Laversanne, Mathieu McGlynn, Katherine A. Soerjomataram, Isabelle J Hepatol Research Article BACKGROUND & AIMS: The burden of liver cancer varies across the world. Herein, we present updated estimates of the current global burden of liver cancer (incidence and mortality) and provide predictions of the number of cases/deaths to 2040. METHODS: We extracted data on primary liver cancer cases and deaths from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database, which includes 185 countries. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years were calculated. Cases and deaths up to the year 2040 were predicted based on incidence and mortality rates for 2020 and global demographic projections to 2040. RESULTS: In 2020, an estimated 905,700 people were diagnosed with, and 830,200 people died from, liver cancer globally. Global ASRs for liver cancer were 9.5 and 8.7 for new cases and deaths, respectively, per 100,000 people and were highest in Eastern Asia (17.8 new cases, 16.1 deaths), Northern Africa (15.2 new cases, 14.5 deaths), and South-Eastern Asia (13.7 new cases, 13.2 deaths). Liver cancer was among the top three causes of cancer death in 46 countries and was among the top five causes of cancer death in 90 countries. ASRs of both incidence and mortality were higher among males than females in all world regions (male:female ASR ratio ranged between 1.2–3.6). The number of new cases of liver cancer per year is predicted to increase by 55.0% between 2020 and 2040, with a possible 1.4 million people diagnosed in 2040. A predicted 1.3 million people could die from liver cancer in 2040 (56.4% more than in 2020). CONCLUSIONS: Liver cancer is a major cause of death in many countries, and the number of people diagnosed with liver cancer is predicted to rise. Efforts to reduce the incidence of preventable liver cancer should be prioritised. LAY SUMMARY: The burden of liver cancer varies across the world. Liver cancer was among the top three causes of cancer death in 46 countries and was among the top five causes of cancer death in 90 countries worldwide. We predict the number of cases and deaths will rise over the next 20 years as the world population grows. Primary liver cancer due to some causes is preventable if control efforts are prioritised and the predicted rise in cases may increase the need for resources to manage care of patients with liver cancer. Elsevier 2022-12 /pmc/articles/PMC9670241/ /pubmed/36208844 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhep.2022.08.021 Text en © 2022 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of European Association for the Study of the Liver. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).
spellingShingle Research Article
Rumgay, Harriet
Arnold, Melina
Ferlay, Jacques
Lesi, Olufunmilayo
Cabasag, Citadel J.
Vignat, Jérôme
Laversanne, Mathieu
McGlynn, Katherine A.
Soerjomataram, Isabelle
Global burden of primary liver cancer in 2020 and predictions to 2040
title Global burden of primary liver cancer in 2020 and predictions to 2040
title_full Global burden of primary liver cancer in 2020 and predictions to 2040
title_fullStr Global burden of primary liver cancer in 2020 and predictions to 2040
title_full_unstemmed Global burden of primary liver cancer in 2020 and predictions to 2040
title_short Global burden of primary liver cancer in 2020 and predictions to 2040
title_sort global burden of primary liver cancer in 2020 and predictions to 2040
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9670241/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36208844
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhep.2022.08.021
work_keys_str_mv AT rumgayharriet globalburdenofprimarylivercancerin2020andpredictionsto2040
AT arnoldmelina globalburdenofprimarylivercancerin2020andpredictionsto2040
AT ferlayjacques globalburdenofprimarylivercancerin2020andpredictionsto2040
AT lesiolufunmilayo globalburdenofprimarylivercancerin2020andpredictionsto2040
AT cabasagcitadelj globalburdenofprimarylivercancerin2020andpredictionsto2040
AT vignatjerome globalburdenofprimarylivercancerin2020andpredictionsto2040
AT laversannemathieu globalburdenofprimarylivercancerin2020andpredictionsto2040
AT mcglynnkatherinea globalburdenofprimarylivercancerin2020andpredictionsto2040
AT soerjomataramisabelle globalburdenofprimarylivercancerin2020andpredictionsto2040