Targeted vs. full population screening costs for incident atrial fibrillation and AF-related stroke for a healthy population aged 65 years in the United Kingdom

AIMS: Atrial Fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained heart arrhythmia and a major preventable cause of stroke. Stroke accounts for a large amount of health and social care funding and over the coming years is likely to place an increasing cost burden on the wider UK health care system. We therefore need to understand how an opportunistic AF screening programme would impact on healthcare costs of AF (and AF-related stroke) for the NHS. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using UK population forecasts and prior published data we initially calculated the number of people to be screened, newly-diagnosed and treated for Atrial Fibrillation (AF), and the associated costs of such a programme for all 65 year olds and for just a ‘high risk’ group. The reduction in the number of stroke cases recorded and the associated cost savings were subsequently calculated, for 2020 and the projected estimates over the following decade. The number of newly diagnosed AF patients at 65 years old for the two groups (all 65 year olds and for just a ‘high risk’ group) would be in 6754 and 797 in 2020, rising to 9200 and 1086 in 2030, respectively. In 2020 the cost of the screening programme for the two options would be £14.3m and £1.7m. If AF is medicated and monitored then there would be a subsequent reduction in the number of stroke cases in 2020 by 4323 or 510 depending on the group screened, with associated savings of £394.2m and £46.5m, respectively. Focussing on 2030 and should opportunistic screenings for AF be introduced at age 65, with subsequent treatment, it is predicted to reduce the number of stroke cases over the decade by 5888 if all 65 year olds are screened and 695 if just the high risk group are screened. If the number of strokes can be reduced by treating these screened AF patients, we would substantially reduce the health and social care costs of stroke by £654.6m and £77.3m, respectively. CONCLUSION: The number of newly diagnosed AF patients at age 65 will rise over the decade between 2020 and 2030. Screening and treatment of AF will substantially reduce the health and social care costs of AF-related stroke in the NHS.