The Predictive Score for Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 in Resource-Limited Settings

Background and aims The second wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been devastating in India and many developing countries. The mortality reported has been 40% higher than in the first wave, overwhelming the nation’s health infrastructure. Despite a better understanding of the disease and established treatment protocols including steroids and heparin, the second wave was disastrous. Subsequent waves have the potential to further cripple healthcare deliveries, also affecting non-COVID-19 care across many developing economies. It is then important to identify and triage high-risk patients to best use the limited resources. Routine tests such as neutrophil and monocyte counts have been identified but have not been successfully validated uniformly, and their utility is still being understood in COVID-19. Various predictive models that are available require online resources and calculators and additionally await validation across all populations. These, although useful, might not be available or accessible across all institutions. It is then important to identify easy-to-use scores that utilize tests done routinely. In identifying with this goal, we did a retrospective review of the institutional database to identify potential predictors of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality in patients hospitalized during the second wave who accessed healthcare at our academic setup. Results Three predictors of mortality and four predictors of ICU admission were identified. Absolute neutrophil count was a common predictor of both ICU admission and mortality but with two separate cut points. An absolute neutrophil count of >4,200 predicted need for ICU admission (odds ratio (OR): 3.1 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.0, 4.8)), and >7,200 predicted mortality (adjusted OR: 4.2 (95% CI: 1.9, 9.4)). We observed that a blood urea level greater than 45 was predictive of needing ICU care (adjusted OR: 8.0 (95% CI: 3.7, 17.6)). In our dataset, serum ferritin of >500 was predictive of ICU admission (adjusted OR: 2.7 (95% CI: 1.2, 5.9)). We noted a right shift of partial pressure (p50 is the oxygen tension at which hemoglobin is 50% saturated) (p50c) in SARS-CoV-2 as a predictor of ICU care (OR: 2.6 (95% CI: 1.7, 3.9)) when partial pressure is >26.5. In our analysis, a serum protein of less than 7 g/dL (OR: 2.8 (95% CI: 1.7, 4.4)) was a predictive variable for ICU admission. An LDH value of >675 was predictive of severity with a need for ICU admission (OR: 9.2 (95% CI: 5.4, 15.5)) in our series. We then assigned a score to each of the predictive variables based on the adjusted odds ratio. Conclusion We identified a set of easy-to-use predictive variables and scores to recognize the subset of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 with the highest risk of death or clinical worsening requiring ICU care.