Incidence of multimorbidity and associated factors during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil: a cohort study

BACKGROUND: Due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, access to healthcare services may have become difficult, which may have led to an increase in chronic diseases and multimorbidity. OBJECTIVES: To assess the incidence of multimorbidity and its associated factors among adults living in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cohort study conducted in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. METHODS: We included data from the two waves of the Prospective Study About Mental and Physical Health (PAMPA). Data were collected via online questionnaires between June and July 2020 (wave 1) and between December 2020 and January 2021 (wave 2). Multimorbidity was defined as the presence of two or more diagnosed medical conditions. RESULTS: In total, 516 individuals were included, among whom 27.1% (95% confidence interval, CI: 23.5-31.1) developed multimorbidity from wave 1 to 2. In adjusted regression models, female sex (hazard ratio, HR: 1.97; 95% CI: 1.19-3.24), middle-aged adults (31-59 years) (HR: 1.78; 95% CI: 1.18-2.70) and older adults (60 or over) (HR: 2.41; 95% CI: 1.25-4.61) showed higher risk of multimorbidity. Back pain (19.4%), high cholesterol (13.3%) and depression (12.2%) were the medical conditions with the highest proportions reported by the participants during wave 2. CONCLUSION: The incidence of multimorbidity during a six-month period during the COVID-19 pandemic was 27.1% in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.