Progression of Chronic Kidney Disease Risk Categories and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Total Mortality: Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Cohort

BACKGROUND: Previous studies of worsening chronic kidney disease (CKD) based on declining estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or increasing urine albumin‐creatinine ratio (UACR) are limited to later middle‐age and older adults. We examined associations of CKD progression and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality in younger adults. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 4382 adults in CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) initially aged 27 to 41 years and prospectively over 20 years. Five‐year transition probabilities across CKD risk categories were based on eGFR and UACR measured at each exam. Proportional hazards models predicted incident CVD and all‐cause mortality by time‐varying CKD risk category, adjusting for demographics and CVD risk factors. Progression of CKD risk categories over 20 years occurred in 28.7% (1256/4382) of participants, driven by increases in UACR, but including 5.8% (n=255) with eGFR<60 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) or UACR ≥300 mg/g. Compared with eGFR ≥60 and UACR <10, demographic and smoking‐adjusted hazard ratios for CVD were 1.62 (95% CI, 1.21–2.18) for low CKD risk (eGFR ≥60 with UACR 10–29) and 13.65 (95% CI, 7.52–24.79) for very high CKD risk (eGFR <30 or eGFR 30–44 with UACR 30–299; or eGFR 30–59 with UACR ≥300). Corresponding hazard ratios for all‐cause mortality were 1.42 (95% CI, 1.08–1.88) and 14.75 (95% CI, 9.97–21.82). Although CVD associations were attenuated after adjustment for mediating CVD risk factors, all‐cause mortality associations remained statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Among young to middle‐aged adults, progression to higher CKD risk category was common. Routine monitoring eGFR and UACR holds promise for prevention of CVD and total mortality.