PM(2.5) exceedances and source appointment as inputs for an early warning system

Between June 2018 and April 2019, a sampling campaign was carried out to collect PM(2.5), monitoring meteorological parameters and anthropogenic events in the Sartenejas Valley, Venezuela. We develop a logistic model for PM(2.5) exceedances (≥ 12.5 µg m(−3)). Source appointment was done using elemental composition and morphology of PM by scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy dispersive spectroscopy (SEM–EDS). A proposal of an early warning system (EWS) for PM pollution episodes is presented. The logistic model has a holistic success rate of 94%, with forest fires and motor vehicle flows as significant variables. Source appointment analysis by occurrence of events showed that samples with higher concentrations of PM had carbon-rich particles and traces of K associated with biomass burning, as well as aluminosilicates and metallic elements associated with resuspension of soil dust by motor-vehicles. Quantitative source appointment analysis showed that soil dust, garbage burning/marine aerosols and wildfires are three majority sources of PM. An EWS for PM pollution episodes around the Sartenejas Valley is proposed considering the variables and elements mentioned. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10653-021-01189-2.