Risk factor score for the prediction of central compartment lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma and its clinical significance

OBJECTIVE: To establish the criteria for a risk factor score (RFS) for predicting the probability of central compartment lymph node metastasis (LNM) in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) and to explore the clinical significance of the RFS. METHODS: The data of 412 patients with PTC who underwent surgical resection between May 2013 and July 2016 were retrospectively analysed and divided into two groups: a central LNM group and a non-central LNM group. In each group, the frequency of six risk factors was documented: sex, age, tumour size, extracapsular spread (ECS), tumour multifocality, and tumour location. The maximum likelihood method of discriminant analysis was adopted to calculate patient scores for the six risk indicators. In addition, the data of 104 patients with PTC admitted between July 2016 and December 2016 were prospectively analysed using this method and these six risk factors. A higher score represented one certain possibility that was the more appropriate for one patient. RESULTS: In the retrospective group, the result was as follows: 129 patients with positive (+) lymph nodes in the central compartment and 168 patients with negative (−) lymph nodes in the central compartment, which was in line with the actual results. In the prospective group, there were 28 patients with positive lymph nodes in the central compartment and 48 patients with negative lymph nodes in the central compartment. The coincidence rates using the RFS were 71.9% for the retrospective group and 73.1% for the prospective group. CONCLUSION: By simple and quantitative analyses of the presence of central LNM, the RFS is of great significance when choosing surgical approaches and postoperative individual-based treatment plans, as well as when determining the prognosis of central compartment LNM in patients with PTC.