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Analysis of characteristics and forecast of unintentional injury deaths of children under age 5 from 2013 to 2019 in Sichuan, China
OBJECTIVE: Through the study of death characteristics and trend prediction, it is hoped that key populations, regions and seasons can be identified, thereby providing evidence support for the efficient prevention and control management of unintentional injury deaths. METHOD: We collected information...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BioMed Central
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9677681/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36411468 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-14600-z |
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author | Hu, Jinnuo Luo, Min He, Linkun Zhao, Ziling |
author_facet | Hu, Jinnuo Luo, Min He, Linkun Zhao, Ziling |
author_sort | Hu, Jinnuo |
collection | PubMed |
description | OBJECTIVE: Through the study of death characteristics and trend prediction, it is hoped that key populations, regions and seasons can be identified, thereby providing evidence support for the efficient prevention and control management of unintentional injury deaths. METHOD: We collected information on 8630 unintentional deaths of children under age 5 from local surveillance systems, analyzed by chi-square test and predicted by the seasonal ARIMA model. RESULTS: About 33.1% of child deaths were under the age of 1, 60.5% were boys, 37.6% were in urban areas, 2.6% were among ethnic Tibetans, 6.8% were among ethnic Yi, and 46.6% died inside houses. The top three of total deaths were accidental drowning (35.0%), accidental suffocation (32.7%) and traffic accident (15.5%). The ratio of males to females in traffic accidents (1.28:1) and poisoning (1.30:1) deaths was relatively lower than accidental falls (1.62:1) and drowning (1.85:1). The causes of death ratio in rural and urban areas were: drowning (1.83:1), poisoning (1.75:1), suffocation (1.62:1), traffic (1.41:1), and falling (1.24:1). Children's deaths of ethnic minority groups of Tibetan and Yi increased year by year (χ(2)=75.261, P< 0.001). Tibetan and Yi groups had the most deaths in summer, and Han in winter (χ(2)=29.093, P< 0.001). Accidental suffocation accounted for 78.2 percent of the total unintentional deaths of children under age 1. And drowning accounted for only 2.4 percent. The model SERIMA (1, 1, 2) (2, 0, 0) [12] is suitable for describing and predicting unintentional injury deaths of children under age 5. CONCLUSION: We should combine death surveillance with qualitative investigation or in-depth quantitative investigation to further analyze unintentional injury deaths in children. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9677681 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-96776812022-11-22 Analysis of characteristics and forecast of unintentional injury deaths of children under age 5 from 2013 to 2019 in Sichuan, China Hu, Jinnuo Luo, Min He, Linkun Zhao, Ziling BMC Public Health Research OBJECTIVE: Through the study of death characteristics and trend prediction, it is hoped that key populations, regions and seasons can be identified, thereby providing evidence support for the efficient prevention and control management of unintentional injury deaths. METHOD: We collected information on 8630 unintentional deaths of children under age 5 from local surveillance systems, analyzed by chi-square test and predicted by the seasonal ARIMA model. RESULTS: About 33.1% of child deaths were under the age of 1, 60.5% were boys, 37.6% were in urban areas, 2.6% were among ethnic Tibetans, 6.8% were among ethnic Yi, and 46.6% died inside houses. The top three of total deaths were accidental drowning (35.0%), accidental suffocation (32.7%) and traffic accident (15.5%). The ratio of males to females in traffic accidents (1.28:1) and poisoning (1.30:1) deaths was relatively lower than accidental falls (1.62:1) and drowning (1.85:1). The causes of death ratio in rural and urban areas were: drowning (1.83:1), poisoning (1.75:1), suffocation (1.62:1), traffic (1.41:1), and falling (1.24:1). Children's deaths of ethnic minority groups of Tibetan and Yi increased year by year (χ(2)=75.261, P< 0.001). Tibetan and Yi groups had the most deaths in summer, and Han in winter (χ(2)=29.093, P< 0.001). Accidental suffocation accounted for 78.2 percent of the total unintentional deaths of children under age 1. And drowning accounted for only 2.4 percent. The model SERIMA (1, 1, 2) (2, 0, 0) [12] is suitable for describing and predicting unintentional injury deaths of children under age 5. CONCLUSION: We should combine death surveillance with qualitative investigation or in-depth quantitative investigation to further analyze unintentional injury deaths in children. BioMed Central 2022-11-21 /pmc/articles/PMC9677681/ /pubmed/36411468 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-14600-z Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. |
spellingShingle | Research Hu, Jinnuo Luo, Min He, Linkun Zhao, Ziling Analysis of characteristics and forecast of unintentional injury deaths of children under age 5 from 2013 to 2019 in Sichuan, China |
title | Analysis of characteristics and forecast of unintentional injury deaths of children under age 5 from 2013 to 2019 in Sichuan, China |
title_full | Analysis of characteristics and forecast of unintentional injury deaths of children under age 5 from 2013 to 2019 in Sichuan, China |
title_fullStr | Analysis of characteristics and forecast of unintentional injury deaths of children under age 5 from 2013 to 2019 in Sichuan, China |
title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of characteristics and forecast of unintentional injury deaths of children under age 5 from 2013 to 2019 in Sichuan, China |
title_short | Analysis of characteristics and forecast of unintentional injury deaths of children under age 5 from 2013 to 2019 in Sichuan, China |
title_sort | analysis of characteristics and forecast of unintentional injury deaths of children under age 5 from 2013 to 2019 in sichuan, china |
topic | Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9677681/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36411468 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-14600-z |
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