A new predictive tool consolidating CURB-65 with procalcitonin and albumin to assess short-term mortality in hospitalized elderly patients with infectious disease: A retrospective study of a patient cohort

Hospitalized elderly patients are often at risk of life-threatening infectious diseases such as pneumonia and urinary tract infection, thus diagnostic tools for bacterial infections are demanded. We developed a new predictive tool consolidating modified CURB-65, procalcitonin (PCT) and albumin (Alb). METHOD: This is a retrospective study. Modified CURB-65 (mCURB-65) score, PCT, Alb, and various cardiovascular/respiratory/renal functions were measured. Survival analyses were conducted to assess 30-days mortality of elderly patients using mCURB-65 score, PCT and Alb. The consolidated scores were compared with the number of patients died. RESULTS: There were 445 elderly patients included. Kaplan–Meier survival curves showed significant differences between the high and low groups of mCURB-65, PCT and Alb (log-rank test, P < .001). Cox proportional regression showed that the hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for high mCURB-65, high Alb, and high PCT were all significant, 1.95 (1.24–3.05), 0.50 (0.32–0.77), and 2.09 (1.32–3.31), respectively. The consolidated scores showed tendency of increase with proportion of the number of patients died. CONCLUSIONS: The consolidated score consisted of mCURB-65, PCT and Alb can be a useful tool to predict short-term mortality of the hospitalized elderly patients with infectious disease.