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Quantity and Quality in Scientific Productivity: The Tilted Funnel Goes Bayesian

The equal odds baseline model of creative scientific productivity proposes that the number of high-quality works depends linearly on the number of total works. In addition, the equal odds baseline implies that the percentage of high-quality works and total number of works are uncorrelated. The tilte...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Forthmann, Boris, Dumas, Denis
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9680221/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36412775
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jintelligence10040095
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author Forthmann, Boris
Dumas, Denis
author_facet Forthmann, Boris
Dumas, Denis
author_sort Forthmann, Boris
collection PubMed
description The equal odds baseline model of creative scientific productivity proposes that the number of high-quality works depends linearly on the number of total works. In addition, the equal odds baseline implies that the percentage of high-quality works and total number of works are uncorrelated. The tilted funnel hypothesis proposes that the linear regression implied by the equal odds baseline is heteroscedastic with residual variance in the quality of work increasing as a function of quantity. The aim of the current research is to leverage Bayesian statistical modeling of the equal odds baseline. Previous work has examined the tilted funnel by means of frequentist quantile regression, but Bayesian quantile regression based on the asymmetric Laplace model allows for only one conditional quantile at a time. Hence, we propose additional Bayesian methods, including Poisson modeling to study conditional variance as a function of quantity. We use a classical small sample of eminent neurosurgeons, as well as the brms Bayesian R package, to accomplish this work. In addition, we provide open code and data to allow interested researchers to extend our work and utilize the proposed modeling alternatives.
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spelling pubmed-96802212022-11-23 Quantity and Quality in Scientific Productivity: The Tilted Funnel Goes Bayesian Forthmann, Boris Dumas, Denis J Intell Article The equal odds baseline model of creative scientific productivity proposes that the number of high-quality works depends linearly on the number of total works. In addition, the equal odds baseline implies that the percentage of high-quality works and total number of works are uncorrelated. The tilted funnel hypothesis proposes that the linear regression implied by the equal odds baseline is heteroscedastic with residual variance in the quality of work increasing as a function of quantity. The aim of the current research is to leverage Bayesian statistical modeling of the equal odds baseline. Previous work has examined the tilted funnel by means of frequentist quantile regression, but Bayesian quantile regression based on the asymmetric Laplace model allows for only one conditional quantile at a time. Hence, we propose additional Bayesian methods, including Poisson modeling to study conditional variance as a function of quantity. We use a classical small sample of eminent neurosurgeons, as well as the brms Bayesian R package, to accomplish this work. In addition, we provide open code and data to allow interested researchers to extend our work and utilize the proposed modeling alternatives. MDPI 2022-11-01 /pmc/articles/PMC9680221/ /pubmed/36412775 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jintelligence10040095 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Forthmann, Boris
Dumas, Denis
Quantity and Quality in Scientific Productivity: The Tilted Funnel Goes Bayesian
title Quantity and Quality in Scientific Productivity: The Tilted Funnel Goes Bayesian
title_full Quantity and Quality in Scientific Productivity: The Tilted Funnel Goes Bayesian
title_fullStr Quantity and Quality in Scientific Productivity: The Tilted Funnel Goes Bayesian
title_full_unstemmed Quantity and Quality in Scientific Productivity: The Tilted Funnel Goes Bayesian
title_short Quantity and Quality in Scientific Productivity: The Tilted Funnel Goes Bayesian
title_sort quantity and quality in scientific productivity: the tilted funnel goes bayesian
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9680221/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36412775
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jintelligence10040095
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