China-Europe freight transportation under the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic and government restriction measures

International freight transportation experienced significant disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of the pandemic and related government restriction measures on international freight transportation is worth analysing for the development of transportation policies and practices in the post-pandemic period, but has received limited attention. To fill the gap, this study applies structural equation models to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the international transportation market and the relationships among the pandemic, government restriction measures, and international transportation market. The impact is also differentiated for different modes of transportation. Results confirm that both demand and supply of international transportation services have been negatively affected by the first wave of the pandemic, with sea transportation being more affected by the reduction of demand and air transportation more by the supply volatility. The government restriction measures are found to play a mediation role, in the way that the impact of the pandemic on the supply of transportation service is suppressed through the government restriction measures. Our findings provide important guidance for transportation industry players and governments in their decision-making process facing with global market shocks such as a pandemic.