The impact of COVID-19 on a Malaria dominated region: A mathematical analysis and simulations

One of society’s major concerns that have continued for a long time is infectious diseases. It has been demonstrated that certain disease infections, in particular multiple disease infections, make it more challenging to identify and treat infected individuals, thus deteriorating human health. As a result, a COVID-19-malaria co-infection model is developed and analyzed to study the effects of threshold quantities and co-infection transmission rate on the two diseases’ synergistic relationship. This allowed us to better understand the co-dynamics of the two diseases in the population. The existence and stability of the disease-free equilibrium of each single infection were first investigated by using their respective reproduction number. The COVID-19 and malaria-free equilibrium are locally asymptotically stable when the individual threshold quantities [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] are below unity. Additionally, the occurrence of the malaria prevalent equilibrium is examined, and the requirements for the backward bifurcation’s existence are provided. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the two main parameters that influence the spread of COVID-19 infection are the disease transmission rate [Formula: see text] and the fraction of the exposed individuals becoming symptomatic [Formula: see text] , while malaria transmission is influenced by the abundance of vector population, which is driven by recruitment rate [Formula: see text] with an increase in the effective biting rate [Formula: see text] , probability of malaria transmission per mosquito bite [Formula: see text] , and probability of malaria transmission from infected humans to vectors [Formula: see text]. The findings from the numerical simulation of the model show that COVID-19 will predominate in the populace and drives malaria to extinction when [Formula: see text] , whereas malaria will dominate in the population and drives COVID-19 into extinction when [Formula: see text]. At the disease’s endemic equilibrium, the two diseases will coexist with the one with the highest reproduction number predominating but not eradicating the other. It was demonstrated in particular that COVID-19 will invade a population where malaria is endemic if the invasion reproduction number exceeds unity. The findings also demonstrate that when the two diseases are at endemic equilibrium, the prevalence of co-infection increases COVID-19’s burden on the population while decreasing malaria incidence.