Development and validation of machine learning-based risk prediction models of oral squamous cell carcinoma using salivary autoantibody biomarkers

INTRODUCTION: The incidence of oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) continues to rise. OSCC is associated with a low average survival rate, and most patients have a poor disease prognosis because of delayed diagnosis. We used machine learning techniques to predict high-risk cases of OSCC by using salivary autoantibody levels and demographic and behavioral data. METHODS: We collected the salivary samples of patients recruited from a teaching hospital between September 2008 and December 2012. Ten salivary autoantibodies, sex, age, smoking, alcohol consumption, and betel nut chewing were used to build prediction models for identifying patients with a high risk of OSCC. The machine learning algorithms applied in the study were logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine with the radial basis function kernel, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and a stacking model. We evaluated the performance of the models by using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), with simulations conducted 100 times. RESULTS: A total of 337 participants were enrolled in this study. The best predictive model was constructed using a stacking algorithm with original forms of age and logarithmic levels of autoantibodies (AUC = 0.795 ± 0.055). Adding autoantibody levels as a data source significantly improved the prediction capability (from 0.698 ± 0.06 to 0.795 ± 0.055, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: We successfully established a prediction model for high-risk cases of OSCC. This model can be applied clinically through an online calculator to provide additional personalized information for OSCC diagnosis, thereby reducing the disease morbidity and mortality rates. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12903-022-02607-2.