Modeling the COVID Pandemic: Do Delays in Surgery Justify Using Stereotactic Radiation to Treat Low-Risk Early Stage Non–Small Cell Lung Cancer?

INTRODUCTION: It was suggested that stereotactic radiation (SBRT) is an “alternative if no surgical capacity is available” for non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) care during the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose of this study was to compare the oncologic outcomes of delayed surgical resection and early SBRT among operable patients with early stage lung cancer. METHODS: The National Cancer Database was queried for patients with cT1aN0M0 NSCLC who underwent surgery or SBRT (2010-2016) with no comorbidity. Patients with any comorbidities or age >80 were excluded. The outcome of interest was overall survival. Delays in surgical care were modeled using different times from diagnosis to surgery. A 1:1 propensity match was performed and survival was analyzed using multivariable Cox regression. RESULTS: Of 6720 healthy cT1aN0M0 NSCLC patients, 6008 (89.4%) received surgery and 712 (10.6%) received SBRT. Among surgery patients, time to surgery >30 d was associated with inferior survival (HR > 1.4, P ≤ 0.013) compared with patients receiving surgery ≤14 d. Relative to SBRT, surgery demonstrated superior survival at all time points evaluated: 0-30 d, 31-60 d, 61-90 d, and >90 d (all P < 0.001). Among a propensity-matched cohort of 256 pairs of patients, delayed surgery (>90 d) remained association with better overall survival relative to early SBRT (5-year survival 76.9% versus 32.3%, HR = 0.266, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Although longer time to surgery is associated with inferior survival among surgery patients, delayed surgery is superior to early SBRT. Surgical resection should remain the standard of care to treat operable early stage lung cancer despite delays imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic.