Environmental Niche Modelling Predicts a Contraction in the Potential Distribution of Two Boreal Owl Species under Different Climate Scenarios

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Studying species distribution modelling in the face of climate change provides more insight into how endangered species are affected by these changes. Therefore, we studied two locally endangered owl species, the Boreal and Eurasian Pygmy Owl, in the Balkan Peninsula to better understand their current and future distribution. We aimed to perform species distribution modelling for these two targeted owl species in current climate and future predicted climate scenarios. We quantified highly suitable areas for both species currently and in future climate scenarios. Additionally, we looked at the size of the areas of future species’ refugia where environmental factors might be suitable for the species. Results showed that the future highly suitable area for Boreal Owl shrunk compared to the current area in all climate scenarios; however, for Eurasian Pygmy Owl, the results did not follow such a clear trend. Our study is important from the species’ conservation perspective and fills a knowledge gap about species distribution in the Balkan Peninsula. ABSTRACT: Studying current and future geographic distribution is essential for conserving endangered species such as the Boreal Owl and Eurasian Pygmy Owl. The main aim of this study was to determine the potential distribution of both species in the Balkan Peninsula by using spatial distribution models (SDMs) in MaxEnt. We used data from field surveys, the scientific and grey literature, and an online database. We considered the current time and two future periods, 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. For future periods, we included different climate scenarios (SSP 126, 245, 370, and 585) in studying the potential geographic distribution of both species. We identified two types of potential future refugia for species: in situ and ex situ. Our study shows the highly suitable area for the Boreal Owl increased during the 2041–2060 period compared with the current area in all scenarios, except in SSP 585. However, during the 2061–2080 period, the highly suitable areas contracted. For the Eurasian Pygmy Owl, highly suitable areas decreased during 2041–2060, but during the 2061–2080 period, it was larger than the current area. Our study is of importance for conservation and preserving areas of potential distribution and refugia for Boreal and Eurasian Pygmy Owls in the face of climate change.